Drivers in Eastern Canada brace for significant gas price increases as seasonal changes and global factors push costs upward

Drivers in Eastern Canada are currently experiencing notable spikes in gas prices, particularly in regions such as Ontario, Quebec, Newfoundland and Labrador, New Brunswick, and Nova Scotia. These increases are primarily due to the recent transition to a more expensive summer blend of gasoline, which is designed to reduce emissions during warmer months.

Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, has indicated that gas prices could rise by more than 10 cents per litre in the coming days. This increase is part of a broader trend affecting the eastern parts of Canada, where the switch to summer gasoline has a pronounced impact on fuel costs.

In contrast, areas in the Maritimes have already begun to see these price increases, with some stations raising their prices ahead of others. Over the next several days, it’s expected that more stations will adjust their pricing, leading to a general rise in the cost of fuel across these regions.

Dan McTeague, president of Canadians for Affordable Energy, predicts a sharp 14-cent-per-litre increase overnight Thursday in Ontario and Quebec. This would push the price per litre to $1.79 in Ontario and $1.88 in Quebec, marking the highest rates since August 2022.

These price adjustments are not merely a reaction to seasonal change but are also influenced by several global factors. Despite recent geopolitical tensions, such as the conflict between Iran and Israel, the direct impact on oil prices has been minimal. However, global oil prices have climbed to their highest levels in six months, influenced by broader geopolitical dynamics rather than immediate events.

The ongoing maintenance by refiners, preparing for the high-demand summer driving season, is another factor contributing to the reduced gasoline supply and subsequent price hikes. As refiners conclude their maintenance, the output is temporarily diminished, further tightening the supply during this transition period.

This year’s price spikes are exacerbated by a 15% rise in the price of crude oil since January 1, coupled with an increase in the federal carbon tax by about 3.3 cents per litre on April 1. These factors combine to drive the cost of gasoline to levels not seen since 2022.

Looking ahead, Michael Manjuris, a professor at Toronto Metropolitan University, anticipates that gas prices will continue to climb through the summer months due to increased global demand for oil. This demand is spurred by heightened economic activity in major economies such as China, the United States, and Europe.

While Eastern Canada grapples with these challenges, drivers on the West Coast and Prairies are not expected to face similar increases soon. These regions have already transitioned to summer gasoline, and their supply dynamics differ significantly from those in the east.