Analysts suggest that China’s subdued involvement in the Iran-Israel conflict could signal a shift in regional power dynamics back towards the U.S

China’s notably restrained reaction to the recent escalation between Iran and Israel is prompting analysts to reassess Beijing’s influence in the Middle East. Julien Barnes-Dacey, director of the Middle East & North Africa program at the European Council on Foreign Relations, expressed concerns on CNBC’s “Street Signs” about China’s passive stance amid significant geopolitical tensions.

The conflict escalated when Iran seized an Israeli-linked cargo ship in the Strait of Hormuz and subsequently launched over 300 drones and missiles at Israel. These actions followed an Israeli airstrike in Damascus, which reportedly killed several top Iranian military leaders. Despite the high stakes involved, China has limited its response to calls for calm and restraint, avoiding a firm stance against Iran or any significant mediation efforts.

China’s approach stands in contrast to its usual proactive diplomacy in the region, especially given its role last year in brokering a restoration of ties between Iran and Saudi Arabia. This restrained silence might be tipping the scales of influence back towards the United States, which has been actively involved in the defense of Israel alongside other Western nations and Jordan.

Experts had anticipated a more assertive role for China in the Middle East, particularly as Beijing has historically used its economic leverage as a major trade partner and the largest remaining buyer of Iran’s U.S.-sanctioned crude exports to influence regional dynamics. However, the recent events and China’s tepid involvement suggest a possible recalibration of its strategy in the region.

The ongoing conflict and China’s subdued involvement raise questions about the effectiveness and objectives of its foreign policy in volatile regions. While Beijing maintains its call for peace and stability, the lack of decisive diplomatic action or condemnation of the attacks puts its position and influence in the Middle East under scrutiny.