An Opinium poll reveals Labour leader’s ratings plummet post-conference, exacerbated by internal dissent and policy backlash

Keir Starmer, the leader of the Labour Party and current Prime Minister, is grappling with plummeting personal popularity ratings, according to a recent Opinium poll published in the Observer. Following his first Labour conference as Prime Minister in Liverpool, Starmer did not experience the anticipated ‘bounce’ typically associated with such high-profile events. Instead, his approval ratings dropped to their lowest ever, well below those of his Conservative counterpart, Rishi Sunak.

The turmoil within Labour intensified with the recent resignation of the whip by MP Rosie Duffield, who condemned Starmer’s policies as “cruel and unnecessary.” Her resignation specifically highlighted contentious issues like the winter fuel allowance cuts and the two-child benefit cap, further fueling unease among Labour ranks. This discontent comes less than three months after a stunning general election victory, a time when expectations for sustained popularity and effective governance were high.

Before the conference, Starmer’s approval ratings had already fallen sharply, plunging 45 points since July to a disheartening -26. By the end of conference week, his ratings had further deteriorated by four points to -30, marking the steepest decline he has ever recorded. The survey revealed that only 24% of voters approved of his leadership, while a stark 50% disapproved, signalling a growing disconnect between Starmer and the electorate.

Chancellor Rachel Reeves, who faced her own challenges during the conference, also saw her rating slide, now standing at -28, down from -25 the previous week. The upcoming budget on October 30 looms large, with many anticipating tough measures that could further alienate voters.

Starmer’s conference speech received a tepid reception, with nearly twice as many viewers (34%) deeming it poor compared to the 19% who found it good. A significant 46% reported having no opinion, suggesting a lack of engagement or enthusiasm among the electorate. This disengagement is underscored by the fact that only 20% of voters believe Labour has succeeded in providing hope and optimism since their landslide general election victory, while a troubling 56% feel the party has failed to inspire.

In terms of public perception, Starmer’s promise to lead a “government of service” and restore faith in politics appears to have faltered, as just 17% of respondents believe the government is succeeding in this regard. Conversely, 58% think it is performing poorly, which adds to the mounting pressure on Starmer and his team.

Despite these challenges, the poll offered a slight silver lining for Labour. Respondents viewed the Conservative Party as lacking a clear direction and grappling with internal divisions, as their conference in Birmingham approaches. However, this glimmer of hope may not be enough to shift the narrative surrounding Starmer’s leadership or bolster the confidence of Labour supporters.

Analysis

Political Perspective

Starmer’s declining popularity highlights the challenges of governing in a political landscape marked by shifting voter sentiments and expectations. The Labour Party’s recent electoral success came with high hopes for reform and progressive policies. However, the backlash against specific measures, particularly those perceived as harsh or inequitable, suggests a disconnect between party leadership and the grassroots base. The resignation of Rosie Duffield serves as a potent reminder that internal dissent can erode public confidence, particularly when leaders fail to address the concerns of their members.

Moreover, Starmer’s inability to harness the momentum from a general election victory into sustained support illustrates the difficulties of maintaining public trust in a complex political environment. As the Conservatives prepare for their conference, Starmer must navigate not only his party’s internal divisions but also the perceptions of a fragmented electorate.

Social Perspective

The social dynamics surrounding Starmer’s leadership reflect broader societal trends, where voters increasingly seek authenticity and relatability from their leaders. The sense of disappointment expressed by Labour supporters indicates a yearning for a party that resonates with the lived experiences of ordinary people. The critiques of Starmer’s policies, particularly regarding welfare and financial support, suggest a growing demand for social justice and equity.

Furthermore, the disconnect between Labour’s messaging and public perception raises questions about the party’s ability to articulate a vision that resonates with diverse communities. In an era of heightened awareness regarding social issues, the party’s leadership must actively engage with constituents to rebuild trust and demonstrate commitment to addressing pressing societal challenges.

Racial Perspective

The racial implications of Starmer’s policies may also contribute to his declining popularity. Many voters are acutely aware of the intersectionality of social justice, economic equity, and racial inclusivity. The criticism surrounding policies like the two-child benefit cap may resonate more profoundly among marginalized communities, who often bear the brunt of austerity measures. As Labour seeks to position itself as the party of progress, it must ensure that its policies reflect the needs and aspirations of all demographics.

Gender Perspective

The dynamics of gender representation within the Labour Party play a crucial role in shaping public perceptions. The criticism directed at Starmer, alongside the challenges faced by female leaders like Rachel Reeves, underscores the ongoing struggle for equality within political spaces. The public’s reception of female leaders often reflects broader societal attitudes towards women in power. For Labour to regain trust and support, it must prioritize diverse representation and ensure that gender issues are at the forefront of its policies and public messaging.

Economic Perspective

Economically, Starmer’s leadership faces significant hurdles as the country grapples with inflation, rising living costs, and austerity measures. The anticipation of a tough budget on October 30 further complicates matters, as voters are increasingly concerned about their financial futures. The public’s perception of Labour’s handling of economic issues will be critical in shaping their support, especially in light of the party’s previous promises of investment and reform. As voters express discontent with the current trajectory, Starmer must find a way to navigate these economic challenges while re-establishing trust and credibility with the electorate.