Amidst escalating tensions and shifting alliances, Russia will fully withdraw its peacekeeping forces from the contested Nagorno-Karabakh region.

In a surprising move, Russia has declared that it will withdraw its entire military presence from Nagorno-Karabakh, according to Kremlin Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov. This decision comes six months after Azerbaijani forces launched an offensive to reclaim the region, during which Russian troops did not intervene.

The troop withdrawal announcement signals a significant shift in Russia’s involvement in the region, which has been a focal point of conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia. As of the 2020 ceasefire agreement, nearly 2,000 Russian soldiers were stationed in Nagorno-Karabakh, equipped with armoured personnel carriers and other military assets, with a peacekeeping mandate set to expire at the end of 2025. However, the Kremlin has decided to redirect its resources to the ongoing war in Ukraine.

Nagorno-Karabakh, a mountainous territory within Azerbaijan’s borders, has been predominantly inhabited and governed by ethnic Armenians, known as the unrecognized Nagorno-Karabakh Republic since the Soviet Union’s dissolution. The region has been a longstanding hotbed of ethnic and territorial disputes.

The Russian military’s role as a peacekeeper came under scrutiny when they pulled back from their positions, allowing Azerbaijan to initiate a blockade in December 2022 that led to severe humanitarian crises. Subsequently, during Azerbaijan’s sudden offensive last September, the Russian forces’ retreat marked a crucial turning point, resulting in a mass exodus of approximately 100,000 Armenians from the region.

Despite previous assurances from Russian military officials, including Valery Gerasimov, the chief of the general staff, that Russia would facilitate the return of residents and ensure the region’s peace, no effective measures have been implemented to assist the displaced Armenian population.

This development occurs as Armenia seeks to distance itself from Russian influence, evidenced by its recent suspension of membership in the Russia-led CSTO military alliance and its increased military collaborations with the United States. Additionally, Armenia is actively pursuing closer ties with the European Union, indicating a significant geopolitical pivot in the South Caucasus region.