Trump praises a breakthrough, but nuclear, shipping and Israeli risks threaten the fragile pact

Donald Trump has hailed a preliminary agreement between the United States and Iran as a major diplomatic victory, but the deal remains surrounded by unanswered questions that could determine whether the latest pause in hostilities lasts.

The US president announced on Sunday that the Strait of Hormuz would reopen to commercial vessels and that Washington would remove its naval blockade. Celebrating the development on social media, Trump declared, “Let the oil flow!” and claimed the agreement would deliver peace and security across the region.

His language echoed earlier sweeping claims about the agreement that ended the Gaza war, whose results have fallen short of the permanence he predicted.

The announcement gave Trump a political boost on his birthday. Yet the confidence of his message stood in sharp contrast to the uncertainty surrounding the pact. The full terms have not been published, and several of the most difficult issues appear to have been left for later negotiations.

Vice-President JD Vance told Fox News that preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon formed part of the agreement. He also said the United States would be able to verify whether Tehran complied.

However, major questions remain. The available information does not explain what restrictions Iran would face on uranium enrichment. It also leaves uncertainty over the future of the country’s existing stockpile of highly enriched uranium.

Those matters are expected to feature in technical discussions during a 60-day extension of the ceasefire. Decades of negotiations over Iran’s nuclear programme, however, have shown how easily understandings can break down when the parties disagree over inspections, timelines or the meaning of individual commitments.

Iran’s Supreme National Security Council added to that uncertainty on Sunday. It said final negotiations would not proceed until the other side had carried out its commitments under the memorandum of understanding. The statement did not publicly clarify what those obligations involved.

The promised reopening of the Strait of Hormuz may also take time. Energy specialists warned that commercial oil traffic would not immediately return to levels seen before the conflict. Tankers remain caught in a backlog, mines must be cleared, and normal shipping and production networks need to be restored.

Although the public announcement has reduced some immediate pressure, the agreement still faces a dangerous period before its formal signing. Both sides have time to settle the outstanding details, but disputes could also derail the process.

Israel remains another major risk. Trump told the Wall Street Journal that he was furious with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu over strikes in Lebanon during the weekend. He believed the action could have destroyed the nearly completed agreement.

The deal survived long enough to be announced, but renewed Israeli military action in Lebanon could provoke Iran. Tehran could again restrict passage through the Strait of Hormuz, creating fresh danger for oil supplies and the wider global economy.

Vance acknowledged that the conflict had already hurt Americans through higher energy prices and the wider economic consequences. He thanked the public and said energy costs should begin to fall.

The political effect will depend on how quickly lower oil prices reach households. Many Americans continue to face financial pressure, and Republicans are approaching November’s congressional midterm elections with public frustration rising.

A recent YouGov survey found that 63 per cent of Americans disapproved of Trump’s handling of the economy, while 57 per cent believed economic conditions were worsening.

For now, the agreement offers a possible route away from conflict and economic disruption. Yet Trump’s declaration of success has arrived before the most difficult questions have been answered. The Strait may reopen, prices may ease, and negotiations may continue, but the deal’s survival will depend on commitments that remain unclear.