Chilly conditions to persist, but hints of warmer weather in may

Over the past weekend, western areas of the United Kingdom experienced warmth, with Northern Ireland enjoying its warmest day of the year so far, reaching 19.3°C in Castlederg. However, in eastern regions around the North Sea coasts, temperatures struggled to reach double figures.

The week ahead is expected to remain chilly across the board, with temperatures below average. While there is hope for warmer weather in May, it may take some time for spring-like conditions to arrive.

Why is it So Cold?

A large area of high pressure moved toward the UK over the weekend, bringing dry weather and some sunshine. However, this high-pressure system stalled to the west of the UK, allowing a northerly flow of cold air to sweep across central and eastern parts of the country. With winds coming in from the Arctic and the cold North Sea, temperatures remained low, with some areas barely reaching single figures.

The warmer temperatures experienced in Northern Ireland and Scotland on Monday will be short-lived, as a broadly northerly airflow will persist throughout the week, keeping temperatures three to six degrees below average for late April.

When Can We Expect Warmer Weather?

Toward the end of this week, areas of low pressure will move in from the southwest, bringing rain but also switching winds to a milder south-westerly direction. This change may lead to temperatures rising to around the average of 13-17°C by the start of May, with the possibility of going above average later in the week. However, this warming trend is likely to coincide with wetter and windier conditions.

Looking further ahead, there are indications that warmer and drier weather could become more established during the second week of May. Yet, as with all long-range forecasts, there remains a risk of cooler conditions at times, and confidence in the forecast remains low.