Experts say quantum could one day rival or surpass AI, but only if huge challenges are solved
The question of whether quantum technology will one day surpass artificial intelligence has moved from an abstract debate among physicists to a mainstream discussion within the technology sector. Quantum computing, quantum sensors and quantum materials have remained shrouded in mystery for years because the principles behind them are rooted in quantum mechanics, a field so complex that even specialists struggle to describe it simply. While AI dominates public attention and investment, quantum systems are beginning to attract major breakthroughs and serious financial backing from companies such as Microsoft, Google and several specialist research firms.
Quantum mechanics describes the strange behaviour of tiny particles that do not follow the rules of classical physics. Electrons and photons can exist in more than one state at once or become linked in ways that allow them to influence each other instantly. These odd behaviours enable quantum technologies to process information in ways that traditional computer chips cannot match. Despite this, quantum remains far less visible than AI, partly because the science behind it is difficult to communicate and partly because the hardware is still experimental.
Quantum computing is often framed as a hardware revolution, while AI is usually presented as a software phenomenon. Experts believe that combining the two could create systems of unprecedented insight and power. Brian Hopkins, an analyst from Forrester, warns that these possibilities remain speculative but acknowledges that the potential is immense. He says that early experiments have shown promise, but much more powerful machines and more creative engineering are needed before quantum systems can lift AI beyond its current boundaries.
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By twenty thirty five, market analysts predict that the quantum sector could reach a value of nearly one hundred billion dollars. This figure is impressive, yet it remains far below the enormous valuation of the global AI sector which is already measured in trillions. Both fields face the hazards of hype, overinvestment and unrealistic expectations. Hopkins jokes that he once believed quantum computing to be the most exaggerated emerging technology until the AI boom eclipsed it. Recent concerns about inflated valuations suggest that both industries may be heading into periods of correction.
Quantum systems suffer from a unique problem that has no direct equivalent in artificial intelligence. The particles used to store information in a quantum computer exist in fragile states that are easily disrupted. A small change in temperature, light, or vibration can cause entire calculations to collapse. Some researchers have joked that the ideal location for a quantum computer would be inside a permanently shadowed crater on the moon because it would provide a naturally stable environment.
Today’s quantum machines look nothing like the sleek laptops or servers used for AI. They are large structures housed inside laboratories, often resembling metal chandeliers hanging inside refrigerated chambers. They require ultracold temperatures, lasers and carefully controlled conditions. Researchers have experimented with synthetic diamonds to stabilise qubits, the quantum equivalent of computing bits, because certain diamond structures allow these particles to operate closer to room temperature. Companies such as Element Six, a subsidiary of De Beers, have partnered with technology firms to engineer specialised diamond materials for quantum networks.
Despite the complexity, experts believe quantum computing could eventually transform key industries. Health researchers hope quantum systems will be able to model molecules with unrivalled precision, speeding up drug development and making personalised medicine far more achievable. Chemical processes, such as fertiliser production, could be made cleaner and more efficient. Quantum sensors already exist and have been trialled in portable brain scanning systems for children who cannot remain still long enough for traditional hospital equipment.
Quantum navigation has also shown promise. Scientists at Imperial College London tested a prototype known informally as a quantum compass on the London Underground. Because it does not rely on satellite signals, it could provide accurate navigation both above and below ground. Energy companies and aerospace engineers are exploring quantum algorithms to optimise power grids and improve aircraft fuel efficiency.
Yet alongside these high hopes lies a growing security threat. Many forms of modern encryption may eventually be broken by powerful quantum computers capable of testing every possible combination in a fraction of the time required today. Analysts warn that some nations are already collecting encrypted data with the expectation that quantum computers will one day decrypt it. Experts describe this strategy as harvest now, decrypt later and urge governments and companies to adopt quantum resistant encryption.
Whether quantum will truly surpass AI remains uncertain. Some experts predict a transformative moment by the early nineteen thirties, while others insist that quantum computing may take far longer to mature. What is clear is that both technologies are progressing rapidly and each has the potential to reshape society in different ways.