Justice Secretary Shabana Mahmood announces £4.7bn funding for new prisons and early release reforms to tackle a growing prison population

The UK faces a critical prison overcrowding crisis, with men’s jails forecast to run out of space by November, risking a “managed breakdown” of the criminal justice system, the Ministry of Justice (MoJ) has warned.

Justice Secretary Shabana Mahmood announced the government’s commitment to a £4.7 billion capital investment to build three new prisons, part of a long-term strategy to add 14,000 prison places by 2031 — the largest expansion since Victorian times.

Mahmood criticised the previous Conservative government for adding only 500 prison places in 14 years, contrasting with Labour’s increase of 28,000 places during its last term.

Prison populations have surged due to longer average sentences and rising prisoner recalls, with over 13,600 people recalled to prison as of March 2025, up from virtually none in 1993.

To ease pressure, plans are underway to allow some prisoners to be released after serving just one-third of their sentences, under reforms following David Gauke’s review. Additional measures include extending Home Detention Curfews and limiting prison recall.

Amy Rees, interim permanent secretary at the MoJ, warned that without these steps, police cells could fill, courts would have to release dangerous offenders on bail, and public safety would be at risk due to emergency early releases without proper supervision.

The government insists these steps are necessary to stabilise the prison system while the estate is expanded, aiming to avoid a full collapse of the criminal justice system.

GOV.UK

The UK prison system faces a severe capacity crisis, with 88,087 inmates currently and the adult male estate nearly full at 99%. The prison population is increasing by 3,000 annually, and projections show a complete lack of space for adult male prisoners by November 2025. This growth results primarily from longer average sentences, which have risen from 13 months in 2005 to 21 months in 2023, a 66% increase. Additionally, prisoner recalls have surged from virtually zero in 1993 to 13,600 in 2025. Past government measures, including early releases and the End of Custody Supervised Licence Scheme, have temporarily eased pressure but only delayed the problem. Recent steps such as reducing the percentage of sentences served before release and extending home detention for some offenders have helped, but they have not resolved the core issue. Without significant reforms, the prison estate risks collapse, prompting an upcoming sentencing review by David Gauke aimed at addressing the crisis sustainably.

THE SPECTATOR

The Ministry of Justice is considering reintroducing remission—early release for good behaviour—as part of sentencing reforms, a system familiar in Britain until abolished in 1991. This proposal aims to incentivise prisoners, especially those on shorter sentences, to behave well, offering release at one-third of their term instead of the current 40%. Those who misbehave could serve their full sentence, a major change from automatic release rules.

While this carrot-and-stick approach could improve prison order and rehabilitation, challenges remain. Prisons struggle with violence, drug problems, and a lack of resources for meaningful rehabilitation activities. Without investment in education and support, behaviour incentives risk being ineffective. Public trust in the penal system is low, and early release proposals may face backlash due to fears of reoffending. Reform is urgent given overcrowding and staff burnout, but success depends on restoring order, adequate funding, and a clear system to measure genuine progress in prisoner rehabilitation.