Cold, flu and COVID cases soar across the UK as experts warn of an early autumn virus surge

It feels as though everyone is ill right now — and new figures confirm it’s not just in people’s heads. Across the UK, coughs, colds and Covid are surging as autumn brings the usual wave of seasonal viruses back with force.

From sore throats to runny noses and persistent coughs, the annual tide of bugs has begun. But this year’s data suggests a sharper-than-usual rise, with experts pointing to a perfect storm of returning routines, cooler weather and the ongoing spread of multiple respiratory viruses — including Covid-19, influenza, and RSV.

“It’s normal — it’s autumn after all,” said Professor Jonathan Ball of the Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine, speaking to the BBC. He explained that a mix of factors — children going back to school, adults returning to offices after the summer, and more people spending time indoors — provides the ideal conditions for viruses to circulate.

Rhinovirus (Common Cold) Leading the Surge

Data from the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) shows that rhinovirus positivity — the virus behind the common cold — has climbed to 17.2%, up slightly from previous weeks. The highest positivity rate is among children under five, at a striking 42.5%.

Doctors say this explains why nurseries and primary schools have been hit particularly hard, with many young children battling heavy colds and coughs since the start of term.

COVID-19: Admissions Rising Again

COVID, too, is making its seasonal comeback. The number of confirmed community-acquired Covid-19 hospital admissions in Wales has risen to 68, up from 53 the previous week. Total in-patient cases now stand at 374, with six patients in critical care — a small but notable increase from last week’s 291 cases and five in critical care.

Positive tests are also rising sharply. COVID-19 test positivity in hospitals and GP practices jumped to 19%, compared with 14% a week earlier. Consultations at both GP surgeries and pharmacies for Covid-related symptoms have also increased.

The Omicron XFG variant — known as Stratus — is currently dominant, accounting for 33.1% of sequenced cases across Wales. Projections suggest hospital admissions will continue to climb over the next two weeks, except in Swansea Bay, where a slight drop is expected.

Flu Levels Rising but Still Low Intensity

While influenza remains at low levels, cases are on the rise. The number of flu-related hospital admissions increased fivefold in a week, from two to ten. Test positivity rose to 2.2%, and there are now 13 inpatient cases of confirmed influenza, including one in critical care.

In the first week of October (Week 40), public health officials recorded 20 confirmed cases of influenza A(H3), 4 of A(H1N1), 35 untyped A, and 1 influenza B.

GP consultations for influenza-like illness (ILI) nearly doubled to 5.8 per 100,000 people, up from 3.2 per 100,000 the week before. Although these figures are still classed as low intensity, experts warn that infections are likely to increase as winter approaches.

RSV: Affecting the Very Young

Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) — which can cause serious breathing problems in babies and young children — is also creeping up. Hospital admissions rose from 3.1 to 4.8 cases per 100,000 among children under five.

During the first week of October, six confirmed RSV cases were recorded in hospitals, with four requiring inpatient care. None are currently in critical condition, and overall levels remain below those seen in previous years.

Experts Urge Caution, Not Panic

Health officials stress that the current rise is expected for this time of year, and there is no indication of unusually severe illness. However, they urge people to stay home if symptomatic, practise good hygiene, and ensure vaccinations for flu and COVID are up to date.

“It’s the familiar cocktail of autumn viruses,” Prof Ball said. “The best defence is still the basics — wash your hands, rest if you’re unwell, and don’t spread it around.”

For now, the statistics confirm what most people already know — almost everyone seems to be coughing, sneezing, or sniffling their way through October.