First MRP analysis predicts conservatives winning only 66 seats, labour securing landslide victory

The Tories could win just 66 seats in the upcoming general election, according to the first MRP poll of the campaign. This new analysis indicates the Conservatives might face their worst electoral performance ever, with Labour predicted to secure a landslide 476 seats and the Liberal Democrats poised to gain 59 seats.

Large-scale MRP polling conducted by Electoral Calculus surveyed 10,000 people, incorporating tactical voting into its predictions. The results, published by GB News on Friday night, show Labour at 46 percent, the Tories at 19 percent, Reform UK at 12 percent (without any seats), and the Liberal Democrats at 10 percent, with a 48-seat gain.

The survey also suggests 18 Conservative Cabinet members could lose their seats. High-profile names such as Oliver Dowden, James Cleverly, Kemi Badenoch, and Penny Mordaunt are among those at risk. However, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is projected to retain his Richmond seat in North Yorkshire, albeit with a significantly reduced majority of three percent over Labour, according to Marwan Riach of Electoral Calculus.

The Green Party is polling at eight percent, while the SNP has dropped to three percent, risking the loss of nearly half of its 43 seats in Westminster. If Labour secures a 302-seat majority, Sir Keir Starmer would achieve a landslide victory surpassing even Tony Blair’s 1997 triumph, when Labour won 419 seats after 18 years of Tory rule.

The Conservatives’ predicted performance in this poll would be worse than John Major’s result in 1997, when the party returned 165 MPs. Even without factoring in tactical voting, the Tories are projected to win just 72 seats compared to Labour’s 493. The SNP is expected to win 22 seats, Plaid Cymru four, and the Greens two.

The MRP polling method, which stands for multi-level regression and poststratification, has a track record of accuracy. YouGov’s MRP poll correctly predicted the 2017 UK general election result, including unexpected outcomes in Kensington and Canterbury, where traditional polling methods failed.

YouGov is expected to release its first MRP poll of the campaign in the coming days. While the Conservatives’ current 365-seat majority is widely forecasted to diminish significantly, no other poll has suggested a result as low as 66 seats. The party’s prospects are further hindered by over 100 Conservative MPs choosing to stand down.

Reform UK might also experience a surprising outcome. Despite their leader Richard Tice and honorary president Nigel Farage expressing confidence in recent days about sending multiple MPs to Westminster, the poll does not reflect this optimism.

The Telegraph’s current poll tracker places Labour at 44.7 points, the Conservatives at 23.4, Reform UK at 11.2, the Liberal Democrats at 9.5, the Greens at 5.8, and the SNP at 2.7. Since the election was called on May 23, both the Tories and Labour have seen slight increases in the polls, while Reform UK has decreased slightly, and the Liberal Democrats have remained steady.

Analysis:

The first MRP poll of the 2024 general election campaign paints a bleak picture for the Conservative Party. If accurate, this would mark the party’s worst performance in its history, reflecting a dramatic shift in the political landscape. Several factors contribute to this anticipated outcome, including political, sociological, economic, and local considerations.

Politically, the Conservative Party has faced significant challenges under Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s leadership. Issues such as handling the cost of living crisis, healthcare, and Brexit’s aftermath have fueled public dissatisfaction. Additionally, the decision of over 100 Conservative MPs to stand down has likely weakened the party’s position, creating an atmosphere of instability and lack of continuity.

Sociologically, the poll results suggest a growing disconnect between the Conservatives and various demographic groups. Younger voters and urban populations have increasingly favored Labour and other progressive parties. This shift reflects broader changes in societal values, where issues like climate change, social justice, and economic equality have gained prominence.

Economically, the UK’s struggles with inflation, stagnant wages, and economic inequality have eroded trust in the Conservative Party’s ability to manage the economy effectively. Labour’s promises of increased public investment, higher taxes on the wealthy, and improved public services resonate more with voters feeling the pinch of economic hardship.

On a local level, the MRP poll’s inclusion of tactical voting indicates strategic decisions by voters to support candidates most likely to defeat Conservative incumbents. This phenomenon highlights the increasing importance of local dynamics and voter alliances in shaping electoral outcomes.

Gender and race also play critical roles in this election. The Conservative Party’s policies and rhetoric have sometimes alienated minority and marginalized communities. In contrast, Labour’s platform, emphasizing inclusivity and equality, has likely attracted more support from these groups. Furthermore, women, who have been disproportionately affected by recent economic policies, may find Labour’s proposals on childcare, healthcare, and workplace equality more appealing.

In conclusion, the first MRP poll of the campaign highlights the multifaceted challenges facing the Conservative Party. The potential for a historic defeat underscores the need for the party to address internal divisions, reconnect with a broader electorate, and offer compelling solutions to the UK’s pressing issues. Conversely, Labour’s projected success reflects its ability to tap into the electorate’s desire for change and its focus on issues that resonate with a diverse voter base.