Professor Sir John Curtice warns that voters are abandoning Labour and the Tories in favour of Reform UK, with Nigel Farage’s party poised to make huge gains

As the local elections approach this week, the big winner is already clear, according to Professor Sir John Curtice, Britain’s leading pollster. He claims that Reform UK, led by Nigel Farage, is on track to claim hundreds of seats, with both the Labour and Conservative parties facing a historic decline in voter support.

In an exclusive interview with The Independent, Prof Curtice revealed that less than half of voters are now intending to back either of the two main parties—a historic shift in British politics. He noted, “Fewer than half of the people who tell pollsters how they are going to vote say they are going to vote either Conservative or Labour. It has never been quite that low before.”

The rise of Reform UK, which has gained momentum since its formation, has severely impacted both major parties. According to Prof Curtice, Reform UK is not only taking votes from the Tories but is now also attracting Labour voters, an unexpected development for the party that once seemed solely focused on Conservative support.

The polling expert declared that Nigel Farage’s party has already won the local elections, even before a single seat is declared. “Reform, in a sense, has already won these local elections,” said Prof Curtice, pointing out that the party has managed to build a robust organisational presence across the country, with 1,600 candidates running for seats. This level of participation surpasses what Ukip—Reform’s predecessor was able to achieve in its peak years, a victory in organisational terms that Prof Curtice described as “already decisive.”

While many are focused on seat numbers, Prof Curtice emphasised that Reform’s success goes beyond just vote counts. Their real achievement lies in the political groundwork they have laid down, which positions them to influence the future of British politics. The party’s extensive campaign presence will allow it to create local party organisations, setting the stage for future success in national elections.

In a dire forecast for the Conservatives, Prof Curtice echoed Kemi Badenoch’s previous admission that this election would be “very difficult” for the party. He warned that even if the Tories experience some recovery from last year’s setbacks, they will still likely face heavy losses. He compared the current situation to May 2021, when Boris Johnson’s victory in the Hartlepool by-election provided the party with a strong foothold in traditionally Tory areas. “Even with a recovery, they would still lose heavily in these elections,” he concluded.

For Labour, despite Sir Keir Starmer’s party struggling in the polls, Prof Curtice offered a more optimistic view. He suggested that Labour could actually gain seats due to the ongoing fracturing of the Conservative vote. While Labour’s polling numbers are below their May 2021 benchmark, the rise of Reform UK has allowed Labour candidates to hold on to seats they might otherwise have lost.

However, Prof Curtice warned that the surge in reform could eventually target the strongholds of the Labour Party. “The problem for Labour now is that whereas Reform, at 15 per cent, was great news for Keir Starmer, because it murdered the Tories, Reform at 25 per cent—at the same level as Labour—are in a position to take loads of Labour seats,” he said.

The uncertainty surrounding the local elections reflects the highly fluid political landscape. With Reform UK contesting seats across the country, there is no clear baseline to gauge their influence. This unpredictable scenario means the full consequences of Reform’s rise may not be realised until after the results are in, making this a truly historic moment in British politics.

SKY NEWS

The 2025 local elections, taking place on May 1, will be a crucial test for both Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour leadership and Kemi Badenoch’s Conservative Party. With over 1,600 council seats and six mayoralties at stake, the elections could significantly impact British politics. Reform UK, led by Nigel Farage, aims to capitalise on disillusionment with the major parties, particularly in Labour strongholds like Runcorn, where a by-election is underway. Labour, struggling with low approval ratings, risks losing key councils, including Doncaster, and the Runcorn seat to Reform. The Conservatives, facing a significant decline in support, are also vulnerable, with a possible shift in control of councils to the Liberal Democrats. Voters, frustrated with the status quo, are increasingly willing to “roll the dice” on Reform UK. This election will reveal whether voters are ready to embrace change or if traditional parties can regain trust and deliver on their promises.

BBC

The 2025 local elections could see a significant shift in British politics, with smaller parties challenging the dominance of Labour and the Conservatives. Reform UK, led by Nigel Farage, aims to make inroads, particularly in areas like Runcorn, where Labour faces a tough by-election. Labour, struggling with discontent after taking power, could lose key councils and mayoral positions. The Conservatives, under Kemi Badenoch, are also expected to face severe losses. Meanwhile, the Liberal Democrats are eyeing control of more councils, and the Greens hope to expand their influence. With fragmented voting and no clear majority in many races, the outcome may leave more councils in “no overall control,” forcing alliances among parties. If Reform UK performs well, they will face new responsibilities, marking a key milestone in their political journey. This election may be remembered as the “Anyone But the Big Parties” election.