Quantum computing promises breakthroughs, but could shatter global cybersecurity if left unchecked

A quantum revolution is coming, and Europe is racing to prevent it from triggering a cybersecurity cataclysm.

The European Union is pushing to advance quantum technology as a pillar of its future economy. But buried beneath the buzz over medical and defence breakthroughs is a terrifying reality: today’s digital security — from your phone to state secrets — could be rendered useless by tomorrow’s quantum machines.

“Everything breaks,” warned Nigel Smart, a cryptography expert at KU Leuven in Belgium. “Not break as in doesn’t work — breaks as in, it’s not secure.”

The EU’s new quantum strategy, unveiled on Wednesday, aims to catch up with the US and China, both of whom are sprinting ahead in investment and innovation. Yet while Europe boasts the largest number of quantum research papers globally, it captures just 5% of global private quantum investment. By comparison, the US claims over 50% and China 40%, according to the Commission’s figures.

The strategy’s urgency lies in the fact that quantum computers won’t just outperform today’s machines — they’ll demolish current encryption standards. At the heart of this threat is public key cryptography, the bedrock of secure digital communications. These encryption methods are designed to be uncrackable by conventional computers — but are no match for quantum processing.

The consequences? Any intercepted data today — whether personal emails or top-secret intelligence — could be stored by hostile actors and unlocked later with quantum tools. It’s called the “store now, decrypt later” threat, and intelligence agencies are likely already collecting encrypted data in anticipation.

The EU has responded by releasing a quantum security roadmap, calling for all member states to secure critical infrastructure with post-quantum cryptography by the end of 2030. The timeline aligns with similar plans from the US, UK and Australia.

That date is not arbitrary. IBM, a global leader in quantum technology, expects a commercially viable quantum computer by 2029. Other tech firms and nation-states are working on similar timelines.

But moving to quantum-proof encryption is not like flipping a switch. “This is not only about algorithms,” said Bart Preneel, another KU Leuven cryptographer. “It’s a huge migration problem. It affects billions and billions of systems.”

Indeed, it’s a transformation that could span everything from internet protocols and banking infrastructure to classified military communications. And it’s not just theory — Coordinated export restrictions on quantum tech have already been imposed by several European governments, underscoring the national security stakes.

“This is a big step,” said Stephan Ehlen of Germany’s cybersecurity agency and a key author of the EU roadmap. But he also emphasised that drafting a plan is just the beginning of what will be an enormous logistical and technical challenge.

Still, some experts argue against the panic. Developing a quantum computer powerful enough to crack encryption requires not only time, but vast resources — and success isn’t guaranteed. But for governments and corporations dealing with sensitive data, the risk of exposure is too great to ignore.

Manfred Lochter, another German cybersecurity official, put it bluntly: “If you don’t have access to quantum technologies, then you’re lost.”

With global powers locked in a new tech race and quantum supremacy looming, the EU’s choice is stark: adapt or be exposed. For now, it’s clear that the digital locks protecting everything from nuclear command systems to your WhatsApp chats are on borrowed time.