As Prime Minister Narendra Modi arrives in Kyiv, India aims to deepen industrial and defence cooperation with Ukraine amidst ongoing conflict and geopolitical shifts

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Kyiv on August 23, coinciding with Ukraine’s National Flag Day, represents a milestone in India-Ukraine relations. This visit is historic as it marks the first time an Indian Prime Minister has visited Ukraine since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war. Against the backdrop of this conflict, Modi’s visit holds the potential to significantly impact both nations’ strategic and defence landscapes.

The visit arrives at a critical juncture for both India and Ukraine. For India, the ongoing war has disrupted its defence procurement and upgrade plans. Ukraine’s defence industry, notably its marine engine and air transport sectors, has been severely affected by the conflict. Ukrainian factories, such as the Antonov Serial Production Plant in Kyiv and the Zorya-Mashproekt complex in Mykolaiv, have suffered extensive damage from Russian attacks, leading to significant operational setbacks.

India’s defence sector faces urgent needs, particularly in upgrading its warships and large air transport fleet. The Antonov plant’s production of An-32 military transport aircraft has been crucial for India. A 2009 contract aimed to upgrade 40 aircraft in Ukraine and another 65 in India, but disruptions caused by the war have stalled progress. The Zorya-Mashproekt complex, which manufactures turbines for naval use, is similarly vital to India’s naval capabilities. The Russian bombardment has critically impaired this facility, impacting India’s ability to maintain its naval fleets.

Modi’s visit presents an opportunity for India to explore alternative strategies for addressing these disruptions. One potential path is the establishment of joint ventures in India where Ukrainian technicians could collaborate with Indian counterparts. Bharat Forge’s recent acquisition of a 51 percent stake in Zorya’s Indian arm might serve as a model for such partnerships, helping to mitigate the effects of the war on India’s defence procurement.

The timing of Modi’s visit is particularly significant. As Ukraine grapples with the challenges of the ongoing conflict, India’s nuanced stance on the Russia-Ukraine war underscores its diplomatic strategy. The Indian government has emphasized the importance of dialogue and has sought to maintain balanced relations with both Ukraine and Russia. Modi’s discussions with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy are expected to focus on enhancing bilateral cooperation and addressing defence needs, while also navigating the complex dynamics of the current geopolitical landscape.

Modi’s visit might also coincide with notable developments in Ukraine’s conflict with Russia. Past high-profile visits have seen significant military actions, such as the missile strike on a children’s hospital in Kyiv during Modi’s previous visit to Moscow. To ensure the focus remains on strategic partnership rather than being overshadowed by conflict, India might have sought assurances from Ukraine regarding the timing and nature of any military actions during the visit.

The visit symbolizes a pivotal moment for India to solidify its strategic partnership with Ukraine and explore new avenues for cooperation. As both nations engage in discussions about defence manufacturing and broader strategic issues, the outcomes of this visit could set the stage for stronger ties and more robust collaboration in the future.

Analysis:

Political: PM Modi’s visit to Ukraine underscores India’s diplomatic efforts to navigate a complex geopolitical landscape. By engaging with Ukraine amidst ongoing conflict, India aims to balance its relationships with both Ukraine and Russia. This visit highlights India’s strategic interests in bolstering its defence capabilities and underscores its role as a key player in global diplomacy.

Social: The visit reflects India’s commitment to supporting allies in times of conflict and showcases its role in international humanitarian efforts. Modi’s engagement with Ukraine during a period of national distress highlights the broader social implications of international diplomacy and its impact on global perceptions of India’s foreign policy.

Racial: The visit does not directly address racial issues but intersects with global perceptions of national solidarity and support during conflicts. India’s stance on Ukraine, while focusing on strategic and defence matters, contributes to the global discourse on national alliances and their role in supporting war-torn regions.

Gender: The gendered impact of the visit is less pronounced, as the focus remains on strategic and defence partnerships. However, broader implications of international conflict and diplomacy do intersect with issues of gender, particularly in the context of humanitarian efforts and support for affected populations.

Economic: Economically, the visit holds significant implications for both India and Ukraine. For India, enhancing defence cooperation with Ukraine could help address critical procurement challenges, particularly in marine engines and air transport. For Ukraine, fostering partnerships with India can provide financial support and strengthen its defence industry amidst the ongoing war. The establishment of joint ventures and strategic collaborations can help mitigate the economic impact of the conflict and drive mutual benefits for both nations.