NASA will soon determine if stranded astronauts on the ISS can return on Boeing’s troubled starliner, while SpaceX gears up for its first private spacewalk mission.

NASA is on the verge of making a crucial decision that could either redeem or further damage Boeing’s struggling Starliner spacecraft program. As early as Saturday, the space agency is expected to announce whether the two U.S. astronauts currently aboard the International Space Station (ISS) can safely return to Earth in the glitch-prone Starliner capsule, or if they will need to rely on a SpaceX Crew Dragon vehicle instead—a move that would mark another blow to Boeing’s embattled space division.

The Starliner mission, which launched in June as a critical test for NASA certification, has been marred by technical failures, including leaks and thruster malfunctions. Originally intended to be an eight-day mission, the situation has dragged on for months, raising concerns about the spacecraft’s reliability and safety. NASA Administrator Bill Nelson will be part of the upcoming agency-level review that will determine Starliner’s fate.

Boeing, which has already suffered $1.6 billion in losses on the Starliner program, has been working diligently to reassure NASA with new test data, arguing that the spacecraft is safe for astronaut transport. However, NASA’s cautious approach to risk means the agency is carefully evaluating whether to bring the Starliner back with a crew or to opt for an alternative plan.

This alternative would involve transferring the two astronauts, Suni Williams and Butch Wilmore, to an upcoming SpaceX Crew Dragon mission. If NASA chooses this route, the astronauts would remain on the ISS until February 2025, when the Crew Dragon mission concludes. In the meantime, Starliner would return to Earth empty, prolonging Boeing’s challenges in gaining NASA’s approval for regular flights.

While Boeing’s Starliner struggles, SpaceX is preparing for one of its most ambitious missions yet. Next week, the company plans to launch the first-ever private-sector spacewalk as part of its Polaris Dawn mission. The mission will see a crew of four, including billionaire entrepreneur Jared Isaacman, embark on a five-day journey aboard a modified Crew Dragon spacecraft. The mission, which will include a 20-minute spacewalk, represents a significant milestone in the commercialization of space exploration.

Isaacman, who is bankrolling the mission with an estimated $100 million, will be joined by retired U.S. Air Force Lieutenant Colonel Scott Poteet, and SpaceX senior engineers Sarah Gillis and Anna Menon. The crew will don innovative slimline spacesuits designed for the mission, and the Crew Dragon craft has been modified to allow its hatch door to open in the vacuum of space, eliminating the need for an airlock.

The Polaris Dawn mission will push the boundaries of human space exploration, venturing farther into space than any mission since the Apollo moon landing in the 1970s. The Crew Dragon will travel in an elliptical orbit, swinging as close to Earth as 118 miles and reaching as far as 870 miles—exposing the crew to higher levels of radiation than any recent mission.

This ambitious undertaking highlights SpaceX’s continued dominance in the space industry, contrasting sharply with Boeing’s ongoing struggles with the Starliner. As NASA prepares to make its decision on the Starliner’s future, all eyes are on how these two companies are shaping the next era of space exploration.

Analysis:

Political: The situation surrounding Boeing’s Starliner program and NASA’s upcoming decision underscores the intricate relationship between government agencies and private companies in the space sector. Boeing, once a dominant force in aerospace, is now under intense scrutiny as it struggles to meet the stringent safety requirements set by NASA. The success or failure of the Starliner mission could influence future government contracts, with SpaceX potentially benefiting if NASA shifts more reliance towards Elon Musk’s company. The broader political implications include debates over the privatization of space exploration and the government’s role in ensuring the safety and reliability of commercial spacecraft.

Social: The unfolding drama between Boeing and SpaceX touches on broader societal themes, including the public’s growing interest in space exploration and the role of private companies in making space more accessible. SpaceX’s planned private spacewalk is particularly significant as it represents a major step towards democratizing space travel, previously the domain of government astronauts. This mission could inspire a new generation of space enthusiasts and reinforce the idea that space exploration is no longer limited to national agencies but is becoming a commercial venture with widespread societal impact.

Racial: The space industry has traditionally been dominated by a narrow demographic, but the increasing role of private companies like SpaceX is beginning to diversify the field. The Polaris Dawn mission includes a diverse crew, reflecting the gradual inclusion of more women and people from different racial backgrounds in space missions. This shift is important not just for representation but also for inspiring a wider range of people to pursue careers in STEM fields. However, there remains a need for continued efforts to ensure that the opportunities in the burgeoning commercial space sector are accessible to all, regardless of race or background.

Gender: The participation of SpaceX senior engineers Sarah Gillis and Anna Menon in the upcoming Polaris Dawn mission highlights the progress being made towards gender equality in space exploration. Historically, space missions have been male-dominated, but the inclusion of women in such a high-profile mission sends a strong message about the evolving role of women in this field. This could have a ripple effect, encouraging more young women to pursue careers in aerospace and related sciences. However, the industry must continue to address barriers that women face in these fields, ensuring that gender equality is not just symbolic but substantive.

Economic: The economic implications of NASA’s decision and SpaceX’s upcoming mission are profound. Boeing’s continued struggles with the Starliner program could have significant financial repercussions for the company, which is already dealing with the fallout from other issues like the 737 Max crisis. If NASA decides to shift more of its contracts to SpaceX, it could solidify SpaceX’s position as the leader in commercial space exploration, attracting more investment and potentially leading to further innovations. On the other hand, Boeing’s setbacks could prompt the company to rethink its strategy, possibly leading to more partnerships or investments in new technologies to remain competitive in the space industry.