Poor harvests in Turkey drive up the cost of sultanas, triggering a significant price hike for mince pies this Christmas season

Shoppers are facing a festive blow as mince pie prices jump by 40%, with some premium packs, including Tesco’s salted caramel crumble-topped pies, seeing an increase of £1, now priced at £3.50. The price hikes follow two years of poor sultana harvests in Turkey, the world’s largest producer of the dried fruit, which has significantly impacted the mince pie market.

Reports from trade publication The Grocer show that other supermarkets, including Sainsbury’s, Asda, and Morrisons, have also raised their prices, with increases ranging from 9% to 20%. Data compiled by Assosia for The Telegraph reveals that, on average, prices across major chains have risen by 26% over the past two years, with basic packs of six mince pies up by 8% in the past year alone.

The price surge is largely attributed to the soaring cost of sultanas, which reached record highs earlier this year. According to Expana Benchmark Prices, Turkish sultanas are now selling at $3,600 per tonne (£2,800), though they were as high as $4,060 in July, up from $1,550 in late 2022.

Jara Zicha, senior market analyst for dried fruits at Expana, explained, “Sultana prices remain inflated following two years of lower production in Turkey. Heavy rainfall last year caused disease on vines and significant losses in key growing areas, with effects continuing into the current campaign.”

This price hike comes at a challenging time for households already struggling with rising costs. Earlier this month, analysis from NetVoucherCodes revealed that the cost of Christmas dinner has also risen, with families of six expected to spend £49.33 this year—up by 3.4%. Carrots, parsnips, and potatoes have seen some of the steepest price increases, linked to crop failures caused by September floods.

In light of these price increases, many consumers are feeling the pinch. A recent survey by Barclays found that two-thirds of shoppers are trying to reduce their grocery bills, with supermarket spending down 1.8% last month. This marks the sharpest decline in spending since 2019. The effects of inflation are also felt, with many expressing concerns over rising costs in the new year.

The British Retail Consortium (BRC) warned that price pressures will continue into 2025, especially following recent tax changes. Helen Dickinson, BRC chief executive, noted that supermarkets are facing an additional £7bn in costs due to changes in employer National Insurance contributions, business rates, and a new packaging levy. She cautioned, “Retail operates on slim margins, so these new costs will inevitably lead to higher prices.”

With the cost of mince pies climbing alongside Christmas dinner prices, festive shoppers are left grappling with the impact of inflation on their seasonal purchases.