Fox News survey shows Harris leading Trump by 2 points, driven by a shift among independents and Hispanics

A new Fox News national survey has Vice President Kamala Harris narrowly leading former President Donald Trump in a head-to-head matchup for the 2024 presidential election. The poll, released on September 18, 2024, shows Harris at 50% and Trump at 48%, marking a 3-point shift since mid-August when Trump held a 1-point advantage.

This poll reflects a significant change since the previous survey, with Harris gaining ground among key voter demographics. Notably, Hispanics and independents, who leaned towards Trump in August, now show stronger support for Harris. Hispanics have shifted from favouring Trump by 6 points to backing Harris by 12 points, while independents have moved from supporting Trump by 8 points to favouring Harris by 12 points.

Harris’s rise is attributed to several recent political developments: the Democratic National Convention, the endorsement of Harris by Liz Cheney and Dick Cheney, and Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s withdrawal from the race in support of Trump. Trump also faced a second assassination attempt during the survey period, which may have influenced voter sentiment.

Despite Harris’s national lead, Trump maintains an edge in key battleground states and close counties where the 2020 vote was tight. In these areas, Trump leads 50%-48%. Historical data suggests that Trump could still secure an Electoral College victory even if Harris leads nationally, similar to past elections where the popular vote did not directly translate to the Electoral College outcome.

Harris’s current support level of 50% is a milestone for her campaign. The survey also highlights that while Trump performs well among voters who attend worship services regularly, non-college White men, rural voters, and men, Harris excels among Black voters, urban voters, young people, seniors, college graduates, and women.

Harris is viewed favorably on issues such as middle-class support, personal rights, and uniting the country. In contrast, Trump is preferred on immigration, the Israel-Hamas conflict, and the economy. The poll indicates that voter motivation is high on both sides, with around 70% of each candidate’s supporters being “extremely” motivated to vote.

Overall, the poll reflects a competitive race with shifting dynamics, emphasizing the importance of key demographics and battleground states in determining the 2024 election outcome.

Analysis:

Political:

Harris’s slight lead over Trump indicates a dynamic and competitive race. The shift in support among independents and Hispanics is a critical development for her campaign, suggesting that recent endorsements and events have positively impacted her standing. However, Trump’s continued strength in battleground states highlights the tight nature of the race and the challenge Harris faces in translating her national lead into Electoral College votes.

Social:

The poll results illustrate the varying concerns and priorities of different voter groups. Harris’s gains among Hispanics and independents reflect broader social shifts and changing voter attitudes. The heightened focus on issues like immigration and middle-class support underscores the diverse range of concerns that are influencing voter preferences.

Racial:

Harris’s strong performance among Black voters and Hispanics highlights the racial dimensions of the election. Her lead in these groups contrasts with Trump’s support among non-college White men and rural voters, revealing the ongoing racial and ethnic divides in American politics.

Gender:

The survey shows Harris leading among women, which is significant given the historical patterns of women’s voting behavior. Her appeal to women, along with her support from younger voters and seniors, contrasts with Trump’s stronger performance among men and older demographics.

Economic:

Harris’s perceived support for the middle class and personal rights resonates with voters concerned about economic and social issues. Trump’s advantage on the economy and immigration reflects ongoing economic anxieties and his appeal to voters who prioritize these issues. The poll suggests that economic concerns remain a pivotal factor in voter decision-making.