The controversial former leader, barred in 2021, seeks to return amid heightened tensions and internal challenges following President Raisi’s death

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has registered as a candidate for Iran’s upcoming presidential election. The former president’s move follows the tragic death of the country’s current president, Ebrahim Raisi, in a helicopter crash last month. Ahmadinejad’s candidacy could significantly impact the political landscape, as he previously clashed with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and was barred from running in the 2021 election.

Ahmadinejad, known for his populist stance and provocative rhetoric, has promised to pursue “constructive engagement” with the world and improve economic relations. His return comes amid heightened tensions between Iran and the West over Iran’s nuclear program, its support for Russia in the Ukraine conflict, and domestic crackdowns on dissent. 

Supporters of Ahmadinejad greeted him with chants and waved Iranian flags as he arrived at the Interior Ministry. The 67-year-old politician, smiling and nodding to the media, completed his registration process with the customary presentation of his passport. His declaration, “Long live the spring, long live Iran!” resonated with his followers, highlighting his continued popularity among certain segments of the population.

Ahmadinejad’s re-entry into the political arena brings back memories of his tumultuous presidency from 2005 to 2013. His disputed re-election in 2009 triggered the “Green Movement” protests

which saw massive demonstrations and a severe government crackdown. His administration’s controversial stance on the Holocaust and human rights issues made him a polarizing figure on the global stage.

The election scheduled for June 28 aims to replace President Raisi, whose death has left a power vacuum. Other notable candidates include former parliament speaker Ali Larijani, ex-Iranian Central Bank chief Abdolnasser Hemmati, and acting president Mohammad Mokhber. Discussions are also ongoing about the potential candidacy of former reformist President Mohammad Khatami, although his participation remains uncertain due to possible disqualification by authorities.

Ahmadinejad’s return to the political scene underscores the deep divisions within Iran’s political spectrum. While he maintains support among the poor for his populist policies and housing initiatives, his previous administration faced significant allegations of corruption, with two of his vice presidents imprisoned for graft.

The upcoming election period will see a brief campaign window, as the Guardian Council is expected to finalize the list of candidates within ten days after the registration period closes on Tuesday. This compressed timeline will likely intensify the political discourse and campaigning activities in the lead-up to the vote.

As Iran navigates this critical juncture, the outcome of the election will have profound implications for the country’s future direction, both domestically and in its international relations. Ahmadinejad’s candidacy adds another layer of complexity to an already volatile political environment.

Analysis:

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s re-entry into Iranian politics comes at a time of significant internal and external challenges for Iran. His candidacy highlights the ongoing tensions within the country’s political elite and the broader socio-political landscape. 

From a political perspective, Ahmadinejad’s return signals a potential shift in the power dynamics within Iran. His previous clashes with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the Guardian Council’s decision to bar him from running in 2021 suggest a fraught relationship with the established clerical leadership. If Ahmadinejad’s candidacy gains traction, it could lead to increased factionalism and instability within the government, especially if his populist rhetoric resonates with the electorate.

Sociologically, Ahmadinejad’s appeal to the poorer segments of society reflects the ongoing economic struggles faced by many Iranians. His promises of “constructive engagement” and improved economic relations may appeal to those disillusioned with the current economic conditions. However, his controversial past and the repression of the Green Movement protests may alienate younger, more progressive voters and those advocating for human rights and democratic reforms.

Economically, Ahmadinejad’s potential return to power could impact Iran’s international relations and economic policies. His previous presidency was marked by economic populism and strained relations with Western countries. His current stance on improving economic ties with all nations could indicate a shift towards more pragmatic economic policies, but it remains to be seen how his administration would navigate the existing sanctions and international scrutiny over Iran’s nuclear program.

Locally, the death of President Raisi has created a power vacuum that adds another layer of uncertainty to the election. The acting president, Mohammad Mokhber, has already been seen engaging with Ayatollah Khamenei, suggesting he might be a preferred candidate for the clerical establishment. The potential candidacy of former reformist President Mohammad Khatami adds further complexity, as his inclusion or exclusion could significantly influence voter sentiment and the overall election outcome.

From a gender and minority perspective, Ahmadinejad’s previous administration did not make significant advancements in women’s rights or minority protections. His return could be viewed with scepticism by these groups, who may fear a return to more conservative and repressive policies. The Green Movement protests, which saw widespread participation from women and young people, underscored the demand for greater freedoms and rights, which Ahmadinejad’s administration had previously curtailed.

In conclusion, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s registration for the upcoming presidential election brings a mix of nostalgia, controversy, and uncertainty to Iran’s political landscape. His candidacy will undoubtedly be a focal point in the election, influencing both the internal dynamics of Iran’s political elite and the broader socio-economic environment. The election’s outcome will have significant ramifications for Iran’s future, shaping its domestic policies and international relations in the years to come.