Labour peer warns that Reform UK may replace the Tories as the second-largest party, with Nigel Farage poised to lead the opposition

Harriet Harman, former Labour deputy leader and peer in the House of Lords, has forecasted a dramatic shift in British politics, predicting that Nigel Farage’s Reform UK could replace the Conservative Party as the second-largest party in Parliament after the next general election. Speaking on Sky News’ Electoral Dysfunction podcast, Harman expressed concerns over the growing influence of Farage’s party and its potential to fill the void left by the struggling Conservatives.

While Harman admitted her reservations about highlighting the rise of Reform UK, she acknowledged that the party had a clear and compelling argument, one that resonated with a significant portion of the electorate. “They seem to have an argument, and they seem to know what that argument is,” she remarked, emphasising the importance of clear messaging in today’s political landscape.

The comments reflect the increasing tensions between Reform UK and the Conservative Party. Farage’s party has steadily gained momentum, particularly after the recent general election in which he secured a parliamentary seat for the first time. Farage’s ability to attract support, especially among former Tory voters, has made Reform a growing concern for the Conservatives.

Harman noted that while she had often dismissed talk of party splits as exaggerated, she felt that the rise of Reform UK was genuine and posed a real threat to the Conservative establishment. “I actually think that Reform are going to replace the Conservatives at the next election because they seem to have an argument and they seem to know what that argument is,” she stated.

The Labour peer also highlighted the internal challenges faced by the Tories, with growing discontent over the direction of the party and leadership. Harman pointed to Conservative co-chair Lord Johnson’s concerns about Elon Musk’s involvement with Reform UK, which she noted was diverting attention away from the Conservatives’ political agenda. According to Johnson, the reports of a potential donation from Musk to Reform were “frustrating” because they overshadowed the issues that should be dominating Conservative discussions.

Harman acknowledged that Reform UK also posed a threat to Labour, particularly as the party faces increasing pressure to deliver tangible results now that it holds power. However, she argued that Labour’s position in government allowed the party to “do things” and maintain its advantage, while the Conservatives and Reform UK continued to compete for opposition dominance.

Reflecting on the current political landscape, Harman observed that Reform UK had already gained a significant presence, coming second in 98 seats during the election. Of those, 89 were held by Labour. She noted that while Labour was in a position to make meaningful changes, Reform UK’s growing visibility and messaging had the potential to shift the balance of power.

“Reform are talking a good talk and Kemi [Badenoch] is not talking at all,” Harman remarked, alluding to the lack of public engagement from prominent Tory figures like the Secretary of State for Business and Trade. This, she suggested, could lead to a shift in opposition leadership as voters seek out alternatives to the current government.

In her closing comments, Harman warned that while Labour was committed to meeting the needs of the electorate, the growing disillusionment with the Conservatives could lead to a significant reshaping of the political landscape. “I actually think the Conservatives are going to be finished and Reform is going to take over,” she concluded, a prediction that could mark a dramatic shift in the UK’s political future.