Exit polls suggest BJP will reclaim Delhi’s assembly, ending AAP’s decade-long dominance, as official results loom

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) appears set for a historic victory in Delhi’s state elections, with exit polls indicating the party’s first assembly win in the capital in 27 years. If these projections hold, the BJP will unseat the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), ending Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal’s decade-long rule and reclaiming power in the politically crucial National Capital Territory.

A consolidated “poll of polls” places the BJP at 43 seats in the 70-member assembly, well ahead of AAP’s projected 26. The Congress, once dominant in Delhi, is expected to win just one seat. However, some individual polls suggest a tighter contest, and AAP leaders have dismissed the projections, pointing to past elections where exit polls underestimated their support.

AAP spokesperson Priyanka Kakkar insisted that history would repeat itself: “Exit polls have never been right about the AAP. Every time, we have won with a massive mandate, and this time will be no different.” In the last Delhi election in 2020, AAP secured a landslide victory with 62 seats, leaving the BJP with just eight.

A BJP victory would be a crushing blow for Kejriwal and his anti-establishment movement. The AAP, founded in 2012 on an anti-corruption platform, gained rapid popularity by promising better public services, free electricity, and improved education. However, corruption allegations have severely dented its image. Kejriwal and his two closest ministers were jailed over a liquor policy scandal, in which the BJP-led central government accused them of receiving bribes. AAP denies the charges, calling them political persecution.

The BJP’s projected win in Delhi would mark another major boost for Modi’s party following its underwhelming performance in the 2024 general elections, where it fell short of a parliamentary majority and had to form a coalition government. Since then, the BJP has regained momentum, securing victories in Maharashtra and Haryana, and now potentially Delhi.

Modi personally led an aggressive campaign against Kejriwal’s AAP, addressing multiple rallies and criticising the party’s governance. The BJP also attacked the construction of Kejriwal’s lavish new official residence, dubbing it Sheeshmahal (“Palace of Mirrors”), which further fuelled voter discontent.

Both AAP and the BJP sought to woo voters with populist promises, including free electricity, water subsidies, and cash incentives. While AAP’s governance model revolved around extensive welfare schemes, its credibility took a hit due to corruption allegations.

With official results due on Saturday, all eyes are now on whether the exit polls prove accurate or if Kejriwal’s party can once again defy expectations.