India-US relations impact: Opportunities and challenges with Trump’s return to the White House

Donald Trump’s return to the U.S. presidency brings both opportunities and concerns for India. While the two nations share a deepening strategic relationship, Trump’s unpredictable nature could lead to significant changes, making it crucial for India to stay prepared for any eventuality. The India-US relations impact will likely be shaped by evolving policies on trade, security, and diplomacy during his second term.

India has long enjoyed bipartisan support in the U.S., but Trump’s personal rapport with Prime Minister Narendra Modi is undeniable. The two leaders have shared moments of public camaraderie, notably during events like Howdy Modi in Houston and Namaste Trump in Ahmedabad. Their relationship is characterized by a mutual respect that has translated into stronger ties between the two countries. Trump has praised Modi, even calling him the “nicest human being,” which reflects the personal connection between the two leaders.

Trump’s return to office could be especially timely for India, which is facing significant challenges related to regional security. For example, Trump has been a vocal advocate for the protection of Hindu Americans and the rights of Hindus in Bangladesh, a point of growing concern for India under the leadership of Prime Minister Modi. During his previous term, Trump openly addressed the plight of Hindus in Bangladesh, a sensitive issue for India, and pledged to strengthen ties with India in the face of rising religious intolerance in the region.

Trump’s return might also signal a shift in how the U.S. addresses sensitive issues such as the situation in Bangladesh. The ouster of former Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and the rising tensions involving Hindus in Bangladesh remain crucial to India’s foreign policy. Trump’s support could provide New Delhi with the diplomatic space to raise these concerns more effectively. Additionally, India’s relationship with Bangladesh, especially regarding border security and regional influence, could benefit from Trump’s more hands-off approach compared to previous U.S. administrations. The India US relations impact will likely play a significant role in shaping how both countries navigate these regional challenges.

On the other hand, India must remain cautious as Trump’s unpredictable nature could also create diplomatic surprises. India’s ties with the U.S. have been tested by issues such as the treatment of Khalistani separatists, which has brought tensions to the forefront between India and the U.S., especially with the recent involvement of Canada. Under Trump, India might find it easier to handle such sensitive issues, as Trump tends to adopt a less vocal stance on human rights, preferring to focus on national interests and bilateral relations.

The Quad, an important strategic partnership between the U.S., India, Japan, and Australia, also gained momentum under Trump. With his return, India could expect further strengthening of the Quad and greater alignment on strategic matters, particularly in the Indo-Pacific region, as Trump’s administration is likely to prioritize countering China’s growing influence in the area.

While Trump’s policies may favour India on many fronts, the issue of H1B visas for Indian workers remains a concern. During his first term, Trump took steps to limit H1B visa grants, which affects many Indian professionals seeking opportunities in the U.S. With his return, India must brace for potential changes to this policy, which could disrupt the flow of talent between the two nations. Furthermore, Trump’s stance on trade could lead to new tariffs on Indian exports, which might strain economic relations. Trump has previously expressed intentions to impose reciprocal taxes on India, potentially leading to economic friction.

In addition to these challenges, Trump’s foreign policy could bring India closer to the U.S. in terms of its stance on Russia and European conflicts. Trump’s preference for dialogue over isolation could provide India with an opportunity to engage in peacekeeping efforts, particularly in the ongoing war in Ukraine. India’s diplomatic position, which emphasizes dialogue and diplomacy, could find a sympathetic ear in the Trump administration.

Overall, Trump’s second term holds the potential to significantly reshape India-U.S. relations. While the two countries can expect closer cooperation in areas such as defence, counterterrorism, and regional security, India must remain vigilant to any unexpected shifts that may arise from Trump’s often unpredictable approach to international relations.