The latest CBS News poll reveals closely contested battleground states, with key issues and voter perceptions influencing the upcoming debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump

As the first debate between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump approaches, the CBS News/YouGov poll highlights a tight race in three crucial battleground states: Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Each state presents unique challenges and opportunities for both candidates, reflecting broader national trends and voter concerns.

In Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, Trump leads among voters who feel economically disadvantaged since the pandemic, particularly those with lower incomes who are struggling with inflation. This group includes many non-college-educated and White voters who believe Trump is better equipped to address the economic struggles of working-class Americans. This demographic, historically significant in these states, favours Trump’s approach to economic issues, particularly for the working class.

Conversely, Harris holds her ground by appealing to middle-class voters who view her as more attuned to their needs compared to Trump. While Trump is perceived as more likely to favour the wealthy, Harris is seen as having policies that could make housing more affordable—a critical issue in these states where housing costs are a major concern. Despite this, many White non-college voters believe Harris prioritizes the interests of Black and Hispanic communities over those of White people.

Union households, another key voting bloc, show a close split between Harris and Trump. Harris is perceived as better for union workers, yet this advantage does not always translate into a decisive voting preference, indicating that union voters weigh multiple factors beyond just labor issues.

A notable shift in voter perceptions since the last presidential election is the view of cognitive and mental health. In contrast to the 2020 race, where Joe Biden faced skepticism about his cognitive abilities, Harris is now seen as more mentally fit for office compared to Trump. This change in perception reflects evolving voter concerns about the candidates’ readiness to serve.

Campaign rhetoric and social media activity also play a significant role in shaping voter opinions. A majority of voters find Trump’s comments and social media posts about Harris insulting. Despite this, a substantial portion of Trump’s supporters dismiss these criticisms, suggesting that Trump’s provocative rhetoric continues to resonate with his base. In contrast, most Trump voters find Harris’ comments about Trump to be less offensive, though opinions vary within different voter segments.

The excitement factor also differs between the two campaigns. Harris benefits from being perceived as more “mainstream” compared to Trump, whose positions are often seen as “extreme.” This perception of extremism affects voter enthusiasm and support, as many voters prefer a president who is seen as moderate rather than radical. Harris has managed to consolidate Democratic support, with Democrats showing higher levels of excitement and commitment to vote compared to Republicans.

This excitement is reflected in voter engagement, with Democrats as likely as Republicans to express firm intentions to vote. This enthusiasm among the Democratic base could play a crucial role in driving turnout and influencing the outcome in these key states.

Analysis:

Political Perspective: The close races in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin underscore the critical nature of these battleground states. Trump’s appeal to economically distressed voters and his perceived alignment with working-class concerns highlight his strategy to win over key demographic groups. Harris’ focus on middle-class and housing issues, coupled with her advantage in perceived mental fitness, reflects her campaign’s attempt to address voter concerns about economic stability and leadership qualities.

Social Perspective: The poll reflects broader social dynamics, including concerns about economic inequality and housing affordability. Harris’ edge in addressing housing costs resonates with voters facing these challenges, while Trump’s focus on economic issues and working-class interests aligns with voter anxieties about financial security. The divergent perceptions of each candidate’s social and economic policies reveal how deeply personal and community-level issues influence voter preferences.

Racial Perspective: The perception that Harris prioritizes the interests of minority communities over White voters highlights ongoing racial dynamics in electoral politics. This perception could impact voter alignment, particularly in diverse states where racial issues play a significant role in shaping electoral preferences.

Gender Perspective: Harris’ perceived cognitive and mental health advantage over Trump signifies a shift in voter attitudes towards female candidates and leadership capabilities. This shift may reflect broader societal changes in how gender and leadership are viewed, influencing Harris’ appeal to voters who prioritize mental fitness and effective leadership.

Economic Perspective: Economic issues remain central to the debate, with housing affordability and income disparities driving voter preferences. Harris’ policies on housing and middle-class interests contrast with Trump’s focus on economic recovery and working-class opportunities. These economic concerns are pivotal in shaping voter decisions and could significantly impact the electoral outcome in these closely contested states.