In the final year of Rishi Sunak’s term, the UK sees a significant rise in the return of migrants, alongside a reduction in irregular arrivals and asylum backlog

In the final year of Rishi Sunak’s Conservative government, the UK has seen a marked increase in the number of migrants being returned to their home countries. According to recent Home Office data, the total number of returns surged by nearly 20% from 44,751 in the previous 12 months to 53,228 by the end of June. This increase includes both unsuccessful asylum seekers and foreign national offenders.

Enforced returns, where migrants are forcibly sent back, rose by 48% to 7,190. This is a notable rise, though voluntary returns and those caught attempting to enter the UK at ports accounted for a significant portion of the total returns. This uptick reflects a broader governmental push to expedite asylum processing and manage migration more effectively.

Irregular arrivals, such as small boat crossings and illegal lorry entries, saw a reduction of 26% to 38,784. This decrease suggests some success in curbing unlawful entry methods. Concurrently, the asylum backlog has notably decreased, with 85,839 cases awaiting an initial decision as of June—a 36% reduction from the previous year. The Sunak government’s focus on processing claims swiftly and reducing reliance on expensive asylum hotels contributed to this improvement.

The figures, which cover the period up until late June, reflect the legacy of Sunak’s administration just before the general election on July 4. During this period, the number of initial asylum decisions increased dramatically, reaching 91,885—four times the number from the previous year. However, fewer than 60% of these decisions granted protection, down from 71% the previous year. This shift indicates a tougher stance on asylum applications under the outgoing government.

In response to the backlog and rising migration issues, the number of asylum caseworkers increased by 60% to 2,500. Labour’s incoming administration, led by Sir Keir Starmer, has pledged to hire an additional 1,000 caseworkers and establish a dedicated “returns unit” within the Home Office to expedite the review and return of asylum seekers, particularly those from “safe” countries.

Starmer’s Labour Party aims to combat illegal migration by enhancing the capacity to return failed asylum seekers and migrants. Labour also plans to negotiate bilateral return agreements with countries deemed safe and establish a new returns accord with the EU. The government’s recent initiatives include a target of returning 14,500 migrants over the next six months and bolstering the returns unit, which has already hired 300 of the planned 1,000 staff members.

Despite these efforts, irregular small boat crossings have increased by 10% this year compared to the previous year, with over 19,200 people making the journey by August 19. This rise is partly attributed to a significant increase in arrivals from Vietnam, which saw 2,248 migrants between January and June—four times the number from the same period last year. Other notable sources of arrivals include Afghanistan, Iran, and Syria. Returning asylum seekers from war-torn regions remains challenging due to international laws protecting individuals from being sent back to unsafe conditions.

Sky News

Recent Home Office claims that small boat crossings to the UK have decreased by 29% are misleading. This figure reflects data from the 12 months up to the end of June, including a period of low crossings last autumn and winter. In reality, small boat crossings have increased by about 18% as of mid-year and 11% more recently compared to the previous year.

The larger immigration picture shows that small boat arrivals are a minor fraction of the total. Over the past year, around 1.3 million people entered the UK, with 547,000 coming for work and 530,000 for study. Small boat arrivals account for just over 30,000 individuals.

Recent trends indicate a decrease in skilled workers and postgraduate students, although these numbers are still higher than before Brexit. This raises important questions for the UK government:

• Can domestic workers replace immigrant health professionals and skilled workers?
• How will universities manage reduced revenue from international students?

The Labour government must address these issues amidst a shifting immigration landscape.

The Telegraph

Recent Home Office data reveals a dramatic increase in asylum approvals, with 67,978 granted in the year to June 2024—more than triple the previous year’s figure. This is the highest number since records began nearly 40 years ago. During the same period, caseworkers made just under 92,000 initial asylum decisions, marking the highest level in two decades. However, the percentage of approvals has decreased from 71% to 58% due to tightened rules.

Small boat arrivals, a significant focus, accounted for over a third of the asylum decisions this year, with numbers rising sharply from 7,888 to 35,176. Despite this increase, small boat arrivals are a small portion of overall migration, which totals around 1.3 million, including 547,000 work-related migrants and 530,000 students.

The UK also saw a record 246,488 grants of citizenship, a 37% increase from the previous year and the highest in over 50 years. This surge may reflect concerns over Brexit and changing immigration policies. The rise in citizenship grants coincides with a drop in work and student visas, influenced by stricter immigration controls.

Amid these developments, the backlog of asylum cases fell from 175,457 to 118,882. However, recent increases in backlogs and visa restrictions for workers and students suggest ongoing challenges in managing immigration effectively.

The Guardian

The UK’s asylum backlog has increased slightly to 118,882 cases by the end of June 2024, up from 118,329 at the end of March, despite previous commitments to reduce it. The Home Office’s data reveals a sharp drop in asylum decisions in the months leading up to the July general election. In the second quarter of 2024, only 15,965 decisions were made, compared to 24,348 in the first quarter, and June saw just 1,150 interviews, down from over 8,000 last October.

Rishi Sunak had pledged to eliminate the backlog by December 2022 as part of his immigration plan. However, progress has stalled, partly due to the focus on the Rwanda deportation plan and the impact of the Illegal Migration Act, which limited processing of certain claims. The backlog’s slow reduction has been attributed to the government’s reluctance to process claims affected by this new legislation.

Additionally, the number of visas issued for work and study has decreased significantly, with a 27% reduction in total visas from January to June 2024 compared to the previous year. This includes a 26% drop in health worker visas and an 81% fall in student dependent visas following new restrictions.

Labour’s Seema Malhotra criticized the previous administration for the backlog, highlighting the need for continued reform. James Cleverly, the shadow home secretary, defended the former government’s actions, claiming they were effective in reducing the backlog and increasing returns.