New analysis warns that re-electing Donald Trump could derail low-carbon energy investments and increase carbon emissions

A new analysis by Wood Mackenzie estimates that a projected $1 trillion in low-carbon energy investments would be jeopardized if Donald Trump is re-elected president in the November 5 election. The report highlights the potential for significant setbacks in the United States’ efforts to combat climate change and reduce carbon emissions.

Impact on Clean Energy Investments

David Brown, director of Wood Mackenzie’s Energy Transition Research, emphasized the critical impact of the upcoming election on energy investment. “This election cycle will really influence the pace of energy investment, both in the next five years and through 2050,” Brown stated. “Investments in low carbon supply need to be made in the near term to realize longer-dated decarbonization targets. US carbon emissions could grow, putting net-zero out of reach in our delayed transition scenario.”

Potential Policy Reversals

Former President Trump has promised to reverse many of President Joe Biden’s climate policies if re-elected. These include tax credits for electric vehicles and stringent emissions standards for cars and power plants. Trump is also expected to withdraw the United States from the Paris climate agreement once again.

Under current policies, Wood Mackenzie projects approximately $7.7 trillion in investment for the US energy sector from 2023 to 2050. This includes key incentives from the bipartisan infrastructure bill and the climate-focused Inflation Reduction Act. However, this investment could be reduced by $1 trillion if Republicans reverse policies that support low-carbon energy and infrastructure improvements.

Increase in Carbon Emissions

The report also projects that US energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions will be 1 billion tonnes higher by 2050 compared to what they would be under current policies. This significant increase in emissions would make it challenging for the US to meet its net-zero goals.

Additionally, the total stock of electric vehicles by 2050 would be 50% lower under a Trump presidency. Automakers would likely shift investments towards hybrid vehicles rather than fully electric cars, further hindering progress towards decarbonization.

Comparison to Biden’s Climate Agenda

President Biden has made addressing climate change a central part of his administration’s agenda, with substantial investments in clean energy and emissions reduction. His policies have focused on providing tax credits for electric vehicles, setting strong emissions standards, and investing in renewable energy infrastructure.

In contrast, Trump’s approach has been to support traditional energy sectors, such as coal and oil, and reduce regulatory burdens on these industries. His potential re-election raises concerns among climate advocates and clean energy investors about the future direction of US climate policy.

Analysis

Political Perspective

Politically, a Trump re-election could signal a significant shift in US climate policy, reversing progress made under the Biden administration. This shift would likely align the US more closely with traditional energy interests and away from international climate commitments.

Economic Perspective

Economically, the reduction in clean energy investments could have broad implications for job creation and technological innovation in the energy sector. The $1 trillion investment gap could stymie growth in renewable energy industries and related sectors.

Environmental Perspective

Environmentally, increased carbon emissions would exacerbate climate change, leading to more severe weather events, rising sea levels, and other ecological impacts. The US’s ability to meet international climate targets would be severely compromised.

Local Perspective

Locally, states that have embraced clean energy policies may face conflicts with federal policies under a Trump administration. This could create a patchwork of regulations and investment climates across the country, complicating efforts for a cohesive national strategy.

Future Outlook

The outcome of the November election will have far-reaching implications for US climate policy and global efforts to combat climate change. As the election approaches, stakeholders in the clean energy sector will be closely watching the political landscape, hoping for continuity in policies that support sustainable growth and emissions reduction.

The Wood Mackenzie report underscores the stakes involved in the upcoming election and the potential consequences for the environment, economy, and global climate commitments.