Polling reveals overwhelming negativity towards the former president’s latest campaign event, signalling a potential challenge for his re-election bid

Former President Donald Trump’s much-anticipated rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, this weekend has failed to resonate with swing voters, according to recent polling data. As Trump returned to the site of his earlier assassination attempt, he was met with a lacklustre response that has raised concerns among his campaign team.

An analysis conducted by Impact Social, commissioned by Newsweek, examined 37,000 online discussions from October 5 and 6 that featured the term “Donald Trump.” The results revealed a striking 82% of sentiments expressed were either negative or neutral regarding the Republican nominee.

The report highlighted a pressing concern for Trump: “The reality is, if your content is old, people aren’t going to talk about it. And here lies the problem for Trump. Political rallies aren’t only about presence.” This sentiment underscores a growing disconnect between Trump’s messaging and the expectations of key voters.

The analysis found that a quarter of posts from swing state residents reflected negative views of Trump. Various topics dominated the discussions, with 43% expressing anti-Trump sentiments, 17% against the MAGA movement, and others touching upon his handling of Hurricane Helene (9%), anti-speech controversies (6%), election interference (4%), and his past record in office (3%).

Interestingly, 67% of posts were neutral, leaving a mere 8% that conveyed positive feelings. These positive mentions included support for free speech (22%), pro-Trump sentiments (21%), and critiques of Democrats (18%).

Impact Social’s report suggested that a significant part of the issue lies in the lack of new content in Trump’s speeches. “In many senses, his speech content serves as a series of trigger warnings,” the report noted, indicating that certain topics—such as abortion, war, and election integrity—may inadvertently remind voters of contentious issues that could alienate them further.

During his speech, Trump reiterated his standard talking points, covering immigration, allegations of voter fraud, and his ongoing legal battles. He stated, “Nobody’s gone through what we’ve gone through. I always say there’s an enemy from within and an enemy on the outside,” framing his narrative in a familiar manner.

Despite the event’s setting and Trump’s attempts to energise his base, the feedback from swing voters suggests a troubling trend for his campaign. If this pattern continues, it could signify a shift in the political landscape leading up to the next election.

As Trump navigates these challenges, the question remains: will he adapt his message to regain the trust of disenchanted voters, or will he continue with familiar rhetoric that seems increasingly out of touch?