The IFS claims Starmer’s £13bn defence boost is misleading, as the true increase is around £6bn

Sir Keir Starmer has been accused of misleading the public over his promise to boost Britain’s defence budget, with economists warning the true increase is far lower than claimed.

The Prime Minister announced that defence spending would rise to 2.5% of GDP by 2027, funded by cutting overseas aid from 0.5% to 0.3% of GDP. He told the Commons this equated to an extra £13.4bn annually.

However, the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) has disputed this figure. Ben Zaranko, an economist at the think tank, argued that the real increase is closer to £6bn—less than half of what Starmer suggested. The £13bn figure, he said, assumes defence spending would be frozen in cash terms for the next two years, an unrealistic scenario.

Paul Johnson, director of the IFS, criticised the announcement as “playing silly games with numbers.” He compared it to Rishi Sunak’s previous claim of an “extra” £75bn in defence spending—another figure that relied on questionable assumptions about frozen budgets.

Under NATO’s current definition, Britain’s defence budget stands at £66.3bn this year. If spending remained flat in cash terms, it would slip below 2.2% of GDP by 2026. The IFS warns that Starmer’s figures inflate the impact of the increase, mirroring tactics used by previous governments to give the illusion of larger spending commitments.

Beyond the 2.5% target, Starmer also pledged to raise defence spending to 3% of GDP in the next parliament, calling it “the biggest sustained increase in defence spending since the end of the Cold War.” However, this would require tens of billions in tax rises or spending cuts.

In a further move to meet the 2.6% target by 2027, the government plans to “update” the definition of defence spending to include intelligence and security services. This accounting shift, reminiscent of strategies used by former Chancellor George Osborne, could help massage the numbers but does little to change the real financial burden.

While Starmer insists his government is making national security a priority, the IFS’ findings suggest the public may not be getting the full picture when it comes to the true cost of his defence ambitions.

SKY NEWS

The UK government has pledged to raise military spending to 2.5% of GDP by 2027, a move driven by uncertainty over US support under Donald Trump. Keir Starmer framed the increase as a “generational response” to growing threats from Russia, China, and other adversaries, urging national unity in strengthening the armed forces.

Trump’s stance on NATO, questioning the automatic defence of member states, has rattled European allies. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has warned of the need for a “war mindset”, with Britain—one of Europe’s only nuclear powers—under pressure to step up.

Defence analysts argue that years of cuts have left the UK military ill-equipped for modern conflicts. While the funding boost is welcomed, many believe it is overdue. Starmer’s announcement marks a shift away from the “holiday from history”, acknowledging the pressing need for robust national defence in an increasingly unstable world.

THE GUARDIAN

Keir Starmer has announced a dramatic increase in UK defence spending, raising it to 2.5% of GDP by 2027, funded by a 40% cut to foreign aid. The move, revealed just before his meeting with Donald Trump, has sparked accusations that the PM is pandering to US demands for Europe to shoulder more of its own security costs.

While some cabinet ministers back the defence boost, others warn of “unintended consequences” on Britain’s global influence. Aid organisations and former officials, including David Miliband, have condemned the cuts as “short-sighted and damaging”, arguing they will make the world less stable.

Starmer defended the move as a “generational response” to global threats but denied being “bounced” into it by Trump. His White House visit now looms as a major diplomatic test, with European leaders watching closely.