Labour leader Anas Sarwar dominates STV leaders’ debate, leaving Douglas Ross and John Swinney on the defensive

The STV leaders’ debate unfolded as a brutal three-against-one assault on SNP’s John Swinney. Labour, the Scottish Conservatives, and the Liberal Democrats united in their shared goal: to win seats from the SNP in the upcoming general election on July 4.

Though the debate centred on electing a UK Government and deciding the next Prime Minister, it felt like a precursor to the 2026 Holyrood elections. Labour leader Anas Sarwar, Conservative leader Douglas Ross, and Liberal Democrat leader Alex Cole-Hamilton focused as much on issues in Edinburgh as in London, with varying degrees of success.

Sarwar proved to be the strongest performer of the evening. He seamlessly navigated between criticizing the SNP for “17 years of broken promises” and attacking the Conservatives for their economic policies. He held the Conservative administration accountable for economic instability while also targeting Swinney’s record on public services. Sarwar’s ability to pivot effectively between critiques showcased his political agility and resonated with the audience.

Cole-Hamilton, on the other hand, came across as a Sarwar imitator, seemingly auditioning for the role of Deputy First Minister in two years. His questions to Sarwar were soft and seemed designed to bolster Labour’s position. He raised issues such as rural healthcare access and declining school standards, which fall under Holyrood’s jurisdiction rather than Westminster’s, further blurring the debate’s focus.

Douglas Ross had a particularly rough night. Elections aim to attract undecided voters and expand political support, but Ross remained a core vote politician, unable to extend his reach beyond his diminishing base. Instead of robustly defending the Conservative Government he supports, Ross offered only faint praise and quickly shifted topics to attack the SNP. His past support for Boris Johnson and Liz Truss, both controversial figures, left him vulnerable to attacks from Sarwar and Swinney.

Sarwar and Swinney capitalized on Ross’s weaknesses, especially highlighting scandals such as partygate, the Truss budget, and COVID-19 contracts awarded to Tory allies. Ross’s performance was underwhelming, marked by defensive and evasive responses that failed to inspire confidence.

John Swinney, a seasoned SNP politician, managed to withstand the coordinated attacks through experience and strategic deflections. Known for his skill in blaming Westminster for the SNP’s shortcomings, Swinney used this tactic effectively to navigate the debate. Despite the onslaught from his opponents, he remained resilient and managed to hold his ground.

The debate highlighted the shifting political landscape in Scotland. With Sarwar’s strong performance, Labour appears poised to make significant gains in the upcoming election. The SNP, though resilient, faces increasing pressure from both Labour and the Conservatives. The Scottish Tories, under Ross’s leadership, must reconsider their strategy if they hope to regain lost ground.

Analysis:

The first STV leaders’ debate provided a revealing glimpse into the current political dynamics in Scotland. Anas Sarwar’s dominant performance underscores Labour’s potential resurgence, particularly as they leverage dissatisfaction with both the SNP and the Conservatives. Sarwar’s dual attacks on SNP’s governance failures and Conservative economic policies resonated with voters seeking change.

Politically, Sarwar’s ability to navigate complex issues and pivot between critiques positions him as a formidable leader. His performance suggests Labour’s strategic focus on public service failures and economic mismanagement may resonate with a broad voter base, potentially shifting the electoral balance.

Economically, Sarwar’s critique of Conservative policies aligns with voter concerns over economic instability and mismanagement. By highlighting the impact of Tory-led economic decisions and contrasting them with Labour’s vision, Sarwar appealed to voters anxious about the UK’s financial future.

Sociologically, the debate reflects broader public sentiment. The emphasis on public services, such as healthcare and education, indicates these issues are top priorities for Scottish voters. Sarwar’s focus on these areas, coupled with his effective communication, suggests Labour’s strategy is attuned to voter concerns.

From a local perspective, the debate underscored regional political dynamics. Swinney’s defence of SNP policies and his ability to deflect criticisms illustrate the entrenched support for the SNP, despite mounting challenges. The discussion also highlighted the Liberal Democrats’ struggle to differentiate themselves, as Cole-Hamilton’s alignment with Sarwar indicates potential future alliances.

Gender and minority perspectives were less prominent in the debate, but the focus on public services indirectly addressed these issues. Effective governance in healthcare and education disproportionately benefits marginalized communities, suggesting that addressing these areas could improve social equity.

In conclusion, the debate highlighted the evolving political landscape in Scotland. Sarwar’s strong performance and strategic focus on public services and economic issues position Labour as a serious contender. The SNP remains resilient but faces significant challenges, while the Scottish Conservatives must rethink their strategy under Ross’s leadership. The upcoming general election will be a crucial test for all parties, shaping the future political trajectory of Scotland.