Diesel leads Saudi crude exports in September as refined shipments surge amid strong global demand

Saudi Arabia’s refined crude exports climbed to a 23-month high in September, reaching 1.54 million barrels per day (bpd), marking a 23 per cent increase compared to the previous month. This notable surge, reported by the Joint Organisations Data Initiative (JODI), reflects robust global demand for refined petroleum products, particularly diesel.

Diesel emerged as the driving force behind the export boost, constituting 47 per cent of all shipments. Diesel exports alone saw a 35 per cent month-on-month increase, rising to 727,000 bpd. Meanwhile, motor and aviation gasoline accounted for 23 per cent of the exports, with fuel oil contributing an additional 7 per cent.

Saudi Arabia’s refinery output remained steady at 2.76 million bpd during the period. Diesel led the production mix, making up 44 per cent of total refined products, followed by motor and aviation gasoline at 25 per cent, and fuel oil at 17 per cent.

In addition to the rise in refined exports, crude oil exports grew modestly by 1.41 per cent, reaching 5.75 million bpd. However, overall crude production dipped slightly by 0.19 per cent to 8.97 million bpd, reflecting the Kingdom’s ongoing efforts to balance production and export strategies.

Domestically, petroleum demand witnessed a significant drop of 267,000 bpd, falling to 2.62 million bpd. Analysts attribute this decline to seasonal factors and improved efficiency in energy consumption within the country.

The export surge comes against the backdrop of continued production cuts by OPEC and its allies. In November, the group reaffirmed its commitment to voluntary production cuts totalling 2.2 million bpd, with key members like Saudi Arabia, Russia, and Iraq extending these reductions through December.

These cuts, initially introduced in 2023 to stabilise the volatile oil market, are part of the Declaration of Cooperation among OPEC+ nations. The group aims to offset overproduction by September 2025, signalling its steadfast commitment to long-term market equilibrium. Earlier this month, Iraq, Russia, and Kazakhstan reiterated their adherence to the agreement, highlighting their resolve to meet compensation targets.

The strong performance of Saudi Arabia’s refined crude exports underscores its pivotal role in the global oil market. While production cuts have tempered crude output, the Kingdom has capitalised on rising global demand for refined products, particularly diesel, to sustain its economic momentum.

As international markets continue to adapt to fluctuating oil prices and supply dynamics, Saudi Arabia’s strategic focus on refining and exporting high-demand products positions it as a resilient player in the energy sector. This approach not only mitigates the impact of crude production cuts but also aligns with the Kingdom’s broader economic diversification goals under Vision 2030.

Looking ahead, Saudi Arabia’s ability to navigate complex market conditions while maintaining its leadership in energy exports will remain critical. The balance between fulfilling global energy needs and adhering to OPEC+ commitments will shape the Kingdom’s oil strategy in the months to come.