The non-oil sector expands by 4.2% as Saudi Q3 GDP growth reflects Vision 2030 diversification efforts

Saudi Arabia’s economy achieved solid growth in the third quarter of 2024, with the Kingdom’s real GDP increasing by 2.8% year-on-year, according to data from the General Authority for Statistics (GASTAT). This growth is primarily driven by a robust 4.2% expansion in the non-oil sector, a key target of the Vision 2030 initiative aimed at diversifying Saudi Arabia’s economic base.

The data also indicates an increase in government activities by 3.1% and a modest 0.3% rise in oil-related sectors, underscoring the Kingdom’s growing resilience beyond traditional oil revenues. On a quarter-by-quarter basis, Saudi Arabia’s seasonally adjusted GDP rose by 0.8% from Q2 2024, with non-oil activities growing by 0.5% and oil activities posting a 1.5% gain, although government sector activity showed a slight decline of 0.3%.

International organisations are optimistic about Saudi Arabia’s trajectory. The International Monetary Fund recently projected a 1.5% GDP growth for 2024, rising to 4.6% in 2025, while the World Bank anticipates similar progress, forecasting 1.6% growth this year and acceleration to 4.9% in 2025. These projections outpace Saudi Arabia’s own pre-budget estimates of 0.8% GDP growth for 2024, spurred by an expected 3.7% rise in non-oil sectors.

Credit rating agency S&P Global has also recognised Saudi Arabia’s economic momentum, forecasting growth rates of 1.4% for 2024 and a robust 5.3% in 2025. The agency cites the Kingdom’s commitment to economic diversification as a major contributor to its resilience.

Further supporting this diversification, GASTAT reported a 7.5% year-on-year rise in non-oil exports in August, reaching SR27.52 billion. Non-oil exports also saw a monthly increase of 8.13% from July, showcasing Saudi Arabia’s expanding footprint in non-oil trade.

During the recent Future Investment Initiative (FII) summit, Finance Minister Mohammed Al-Jadaan highlighted the sector’s growth, noting that non-oil GDP now comprises 52% of Saudi Arabia’s economic output—a testament to the success of Vision 2030 in shifting the economy toward non-oil activities.

With sustained investment in non-oil sectors and positive international outlooks, Saudi Arabia is set to continue its upward trajectory, positioning itself as a competitive, diversified economy on the global stage.