Labour shifts spending from South to Red Wall as Farage’s Reform hits record 31% in shock new poll

Rachel Reeves is preparing to funnel tens of billions into Red Wall constituencies as Labour scrambles to halt a dramatic surge in support for Nigel Farage’s Reform UK, now polling ahead of both Labour and the Tories.

The chancellor is expected to use next month’s spending review to shift government priorities away from London and the South East, instead focusing public investment on roads, rail and green energy in the Midlands and North. According to reports, this pivot could unlock tens of billions from the £100 billion infrastructure pot Reeves created by relaxing Labour’s fiscal rules.

Her move comes amid growing panic within Labour over the loss of support in its post-2019 strongholds. Reform UK’s populist message has cut through in disillusioned working-class communities, with a new Techne UK poll placing the party at 31%—a record high, and nine points ahead of Labour, now trailing at 22%.

As pressure mounts, Reeves is seeking to revamp the Treasury’s Green Book, which guides how infrastructure investments are assessed. By overhauling the way costs and benefits are measured, Reeves hopes to unlock funding for projects in areas of lower economic productivity that would typically fail under current spending criteria.

“The new rule ensures we count not just the costs of investment, but the benefits too,” Reeves said earlier this year, highlighting her intent to make public investment “fairer and more strategic.”

The Treasury review, due alongside the spending plan, is expected to recommend prioritising state investment in communities long left behind by Westminster. Bassetlaw MP Jo White, who chairs the Red Wall group of Labour MPs, had demanded action, insisting the review must offer “a concrete plan” for vulnerable Labour-held seats.

Reform UK’s rise has sharply refocused Labour’s strategy. Farage, once dismissed as a fringe figure, is now a central threat in dozens of battleground constituencies. Labour insiders say next month’s spending announcement will act as both a pitch for economic transformation and a direct counter to Farage’s appeal.

Farage has called for the UK to withdraw from the European Convention on Human Rights and slash immigration—messages gaining traction with voters in post-industrial areas. While Keir Starmer warns of economic chaos, it is Reeves who is being tasked with delivering a material offer to keep those voters from jumping ship.

In a speech on Thursday in St Helens, Starmer branded Farage’s economic vision a “fantasy” and drew parallels to the disastrous Liz Truss premiership. “Apparently [Mr Farage] is in Las Vegas today at a casino, and it’s not a surprise,” he said, referencing Farage’s endorsement of the 2022 mini-budget. “The result would be exactly the same. I’m not prepared to let that happen.”

The Tories, meanwhile, appear unable to reclaim momentum, polling just 16%—level with the Liberal Democrats and nearly halved since 2019. Kemi Badenoch’s leadership has failed to shift the dial as Farage continues to eclipse both major parties.

With Labour’s lead evaporating in once-safe northern heartlands, Reeves is betting big on state-led regeneration to blunt the Farage surge. But with trust in Labour’s promises still fragile and Reform’s numbers climbing, the outcome may rest not just on infrastructure plans—but whether they land in time to sway disillusioned voters.

THE GUARDIAN

Chancellor Rachel Reeves will announce billions in new investment for regions outside London and the south-east in next month’s spending review, following a major overhaul of the Treasury’s “green book” – the rules used to assess public spending projects. Long criticised for favouring wealthier areas with higher economic returns, the green book will now prioritise fairer regional investment. Reeves aims to counter growing support for Reform UK in former “red wall” constituencies by directing funding to energy, transport, and infrastructure projects across the North and Midlands. Officials confirmed the revised rules would enable significant capital spending despite expected cuts to departmental budgets. The green book reform follows a similar move by Rishi Sunak in 2020 but is seen as more ambitious. Reeves described the update as a response to calls from metro mayors like Liverpool’s Steve Rotheram, who called the change “one of the most impactful” reforms possible. Labour hopes the plan will rebuild trust and undercut Reform’s growing appeal.

THE TIMES

Rachel Reeves will announce billions in regional investment outside London and the south-east during June’s spending review, targeting areas long promised funding under Boris Johnson’s levelling-up agenda. After reforming the Treasury’s “green book” — a rulebook used to judge where public money is spent — Reeves aims to correct regional imbalances that have historically favoured economically productive areas.

The changes will unlock investment in energy, transport, and infrastructure projects across the North and Midlands, areas now threatened by Reform UK’s rise. Reeves’ team sees this move as not only economically necessary but politically vital to retaining “red wall” seats Labour regained from the Conservatives. Officials describe the updated spending criteria as more ambitious than previous Tory attempts.

Keir Starmer reinforced this regional focus with a speech in St Helens, criticising Nigel Farage and appealing to working-class voters by invoking his own family’s struggles during past cost-of-living crises.