Flu cases triple early as NHS fears months of chaos, overcrowded wards, and rising death tolls
The United Kingdom is heading into what could be one of its longest and most punishing flu seasons in years, health chiefs have warned. NHS England says the virus is spreading earlier than expected, raising fears of overcrowded hospitals and mounting pressure on exhausted staff.
Sir Jim Mackey, head of NHS England, said there was no doubt this winter would test the health service to its limits. Flu cases are already climbing fast while millions of vulnerable people are still unprotected because the vaccination campaign has only just begun.
“We are facing a long, drawn-out flu season,” Sir Jim said. “Since stepping into this role, the thought of such an outbreak has kept me awake at night. Sadly, it looks like that fear is becoming a reality.”
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More than 13 million people have received their flu jabs so far, but that figure is still five million below last year’s total. Health officials warn the shortfall could have serious consequences if infections continue to rise.
Australia has just endured its worst flu season on record with more than 410,000 cases, and Sir Jim fears the UK could face a similar scenario. “All signs suggest our hospitals will experience the same level of strain between December and March. We will be running at full capacity,” he said.
NHS England has now issued what it calls a “flu jab SOS”, urging everyone eligible for the free vaccine to get it as soon as possible. The appeal targets older adults, pregnant women and people with long-term health conditions who are most at risk of serious illness.
Eligible people can book appointments online, by calling 119, or through local GP surgeries and pharmacies. Children aged two to sixteen are also being offered the nasal spray vaccine, which helps slow the spread of infection within families and schools.
Others can buy the jab from high street chemists and supermarket pharmacies if they are not eligible for the free programme.
Experts believe the sharp rise in infections is partly the result of weakened immunity following years of pandemic restrictions. Reduced exposure to the virus during Covid lockdowns left many people with lower defences against seasonal illnesses. Combined with colder weather and more indoor mixing, this has created the perfect conditions for flu to surge early.
The impact of recent flu seasons shows just how deadly the virus can be. Nearly 8,000 people in the UK died from flu last year, while the 2022 to 2023 season claimed almost 16,000 lives.
This year, flu rates are already three times higher than normal for this stage of autumn. Children and young people currently make up the majority of cases, but public health officials warn the virus will soon spread to older and more vulnerable age groups.
Duncan Burton, England’s chief nursing officer, said the NHS was issuing an urgent appeal before the virus hits its peak. “With just weeks left to ensure the best protection, we are calling on everyone who has not yet had their jab to act now. The vaccine is safe, it works and it prevents people from becoming seriously ill or hospitalised,” he said.
Health leaders fear that without a rapid increase in vaccinations, hospitals could be overwhelmed within weeks. As Sir Jim warned, the NHS is facing a winter that could stretch from December through to March, and every dose given now could make the difference between stability and crisis.