A recent Angus Reid survey shows significant disapproval among Canadians toward a potential second term for Trump

A recent Angus Reid Institute poll has unveiled that a substantial majority of Canadians are opposed to the idea of Donald Trump serving a second term as President of the United States. The survey, conducted between July 18 and July 22, 2024, reveals that approximately two-thirds of Canadians believe Trump’s re-election would be detrimental to the country, affecting Canada’s economy, global stability, and efforts to combat climate change.

The poll highlights that only 15 percent of respondents view Trump’s potential return to the White House as a positive outcome. This sentiment is shared widely across the political spectrum in Canada, with the exception of those who support the Conservative Party. This demographic is more divided on the issue, but the general consensus is that a Trump victory would have adverse effects on Canadian interests.

The Angus Reid Institute surveyed 1,435 Canadian adults, using a representative randomized sample. The findings underscore a broad Canadian apprehension about Trump’s impact on international relations and domestic economic conditions.

Amidst these concerns, there is also debate over which Canadian leader would be most effective in negotiating with Trump, should he win a second term. According to the poll, 32 percent of Canadians believe that Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre would be the best candidate to handle such negotiations, while 20 percent favor current Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. Another 32 percent feel that neither leader would make a significant difference in dealing with Trump.

The poll also indicates that a Trump re-election would likely have minimal impact on Canadian federal voting preferences. Approximately 38 percent of respondents said Trump’s second term would make no difference in their choice of Conservative, Liberal, or NDP parties. Among those who are less committed to their current party choice, a Trump win might sway some towards the Liberals, with 39 percent of “soft” committed NDP voters indicating they might shift their support to Trudeau and the Liberals.

The survey results come amid a shifting political landscape in the U.S., where President Joe Biden’s recent withdrawal from the presidential race has further complicated the Democratic primary. Biden, facing criticism over his debate performance and perceived readiness for a second term, endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris as his successor. Harris, backed by a significant number of Democratic lawmakers and unions, is poised to become the Democratic nominee, pending formal nomination by the party’s convention delegates.

Analysis:

Political: The strong disapproval of Donald Trump among Canadians reflects broader geopolitical concerns and highlights the importance of U.S. presidential elections for neighbouring countries. The divide among Canadian voters regarding who would be best suited to negotiate with Trump indicates the significant impact U.S. politics can have on Canadian domestic and foreign policy.

Social: The poll underscores how domestic politics and international relations intersect. Trump’s potential re-election has become a point of significant concern in Canadian society, reflecting broader anxieties about global stability and climate policy. The survey reveals that many Canadians view Trump’s presidency as a threat to progressive values and international cooperation.

Racial: Although the survey does not explicitly address racial issues, Trump’s presidency has been associated with divisive rhetoric and policies that affect racial and ethnic minorities. The Canadian scepticism towards Trump’s re-election can be seen in the context of a global conversation about race and inclusion, influenced by the U.S. political climate.

Gender: The transition in U.S. leadership from Biden to Harris introduces gender dynamics into the electoral equation. Kamala Harris’s candidacy as the potential Democratic nominee represents a significant moment for gender representation in politics. The poll’s results may reflect Canadian views on gender equity in leadership, especially in the context of U.S. presidential politics.

Economic: The potential economic impact of a Trump re-election is a central concern for Canadians, given the interconnectedness of the U.S. and Canadian economies. The survey highlights fears about economic instability and trade relations, emphasizing how U.S. political outcomes can have direct repercussions on Canadian economic interests.