Key polls reveal both major parties are failing to connect with voters, raising the spectre of a hung parliament

As Australia’s federal election approaches, key polling data reveals a messaging crisis for both major political parties. Both the Albanese-led Labor government and the opposition Coalition are struggling to make a clear and lasting impact on voters, raising expectations of a hung parliament in the upcoming election.

The latest Essential poll, published by The Guardian, highlights a significant communication gap within the Albanese government. Respondents were asked to recall key achievements and policies of the government, with many unable to recognise the government’s major successes. Only 46% of participants were aware of Labor’s back-to-back surpluses, while 47% recognised the National Plan to End Gender-Based Violence, and 49% knew about plans to increase social housing. The government’s more recent adjustments to stage 3 tax cuts, impacting low and middle-income earners, were recognised by 55% of respondents. In contrast, a standout policy—the $16bn student debt reduction, benefiting around 3 million Australians—was acknowledged by 66% of those polled. The most recognised policy, however, was the $300 energy bill rebate, which 77% of respondents were aware of, demonstrating the government’s ability to communicate certain key initiatives effectively.

Meanwhile, the opposition Coalition is also grappling with a lack of clarity in its messaging. According to the latest Newspoll published by The Australian, fewer than 25% of voters believed that inflation would be lower under a Coalition government. The Coalition has repeatedly positioned itself as the party of fiscal responsibility, with Peter Dutton’s leadership emphasising their economic management credentials. However, the Newspoll found that 25% of respondents believed inflation would be higher under the opposition, while 31% thought it would remain unchanged. This confusion further compounds the Coalition’s messaging challenge ahead of the election.

Polling results from Newspoll, YouGov, and Redbridge indicate that neither Labor nor the Coalition is on track to secure a majority government. Newspoll data suggests a swing of 3.1% against Labor, which could cost the party up to eight seats and block any pathway to majority rule. Conversely, the Coalition would need a swing roughly double that size to form a majority government. These results align with predictions from YouGov and Redbridge, which forecast a significant likelihood of a hung parliament, with YouGov giving it a 78% chance. The polling firm also projected the Coalition would secure 73 seats, while Labor would win 66, with both parties far from the 76 seats required to govern outright.

In pivotal marginal seats, Redbridge found the Coalition leading Labor by 52-48, but still lacking a clear path to securing a majority. This would leave both major parties with no choice but to turn to the crossbench for support in forming a government.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has insisted that Labor intends to win a majority but has not indicated potential crossbench collaborations. However, he did host independents for drinks at his residence in Canberra, sparking speculation about possible alliances. On the other hand, Opposition Leader Peter Dutton has named figures such as Bob Katter, Allegra Spender, and Dai Le as potential allies in forming a government.

With the election results expected to be highly competitive, all eyes will be on the final campaign push, with both sides needing to improve their messaging in order to secure voter confidence.