120+ Labour rebels vow to wreck the ‘no‑turn‑back’ welfare reforms ahead of Tuesday vote

Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner has declared that the government will proceed with a vote on its controversial welfare reforms next Tuesday, despite mounting threats from within Labour’s ranks. With over 120 Labour backbenchers having signed a ‘reasoned amendment’ to delay or block the changes—including cuts to disability benefits worth £5 billion—the stage is set for a dangerous clash.

In the Commons, Rayner asserted that the vote would not be postponed or dropped, insisting the reforms are essential to end the cycle of “dependency” and reinvest in tailored employment support and fairness for the most severely disabled. She claimed the package includes a £1 billion fund for coaching help, a “right to try” jobs without benefit loss, and fewer reassessments for those unable to work.

Yet the rebellion shows no sign of abating. MPs claim threats of suspension or deselection if they oppose the bill—accusations swiftly denied by Downing Street. Meanwhile, Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch has made clear that Tory backing hinges on conditions unlikely to be met—a move that could leave the reforms hinging on opposition votes.

Prime Minister Keir Starmer has downplayed the rebellion, labelling it “noises off” and urging MPs to view the reforms as a moral and financial necessity. However, with over 120 MPs backing the amendment, many argue that the vote could represent a humiliating defeat for the leadership.

Starmer’s team is reportedly eyeing concessions to rebel MPs, with Number 10 exploring compromises—deliverables that could emerge before Tuesday’s crunch vote. But Chancellor Rachel Reeves remains firm. She insists debt must fall and believes the welfare cuts are non-negotiable to obey fiscal rules and maintain economic responsibility.

Inside Labour, criticism is mounting. Some MPs accuse the leadership of ignoring concerns and failing to communicate effectively, pointing to a lack of meaningful consultation before the policy’s unveiling. Others argue the U-turn on winter fuel payments only emboldened dissenters, proving that sufficient pressure can push the government to back down.

The policy remains divisive. Advocates—like Work and Pensions Secretary Liz Kendall—say the system traps people in dependency and is unsustainable in the long term. But critics fear the package could plunge disabled and sick claimants into deeper poverty without job guarantees—a worry shared by both Labour rebels and parts of the Conservative opposition.

With just days to go, Labour is at a crossroads. Dozens of ministers are reportedly watching nervously—some even contemplating resignation if the motion passes without change. The question is not just whether the reforms will pass, but whether Starmer’s authority will survive a battle fought within his own party.

One thing is certain: come Tuesday, a vote on welfare cuts will unfold—possibly plunging Labour into its first major parliamentary defeat since returning to power, and threatening to expose fissures deeper than party unity can withstand.