As the election nears, John Swinney fights to steady the SNP and revive Scotland’s independence dream

John Swinney steps into the most critical moment of his political life. As the Scottish National Party gathers in Aberdeen for its annual conference, the first minister faces the daunting task of proving that his party — and the independence movement it champions — still has a pulse.

Swinney, who took charge after the rapid resignations of Nicola Sturgeon and Humza Yousaf, inherited an SNP battered by internal strife, scandal, and voter fatigue. Yet under his calm stewardship, the party has found a degree of stability — enough to rekindle hopes of holding power at Holyrood for a fifth consecutive term.

This week, Swinney launched a new government paper promising a “fresh start” for Scotland should it ever become independent. The timing was deliberate: a rallying cry to reassure party members that independence remains the SNP’s central mission. But for many inside the party, frustration runs deep. The path to independence — and a legally recognised referendum — remains blocked.

The UK Supreme Court has ruled that any new vote would require Westminster’s consent, and Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer has already made it clear that no such approval will come on his watch. That leaves the SNP grasping for alternative routes, none of which are straightforward.

Swinney’s immediate challenge is not constitutional but political. He must convince voters that the SNP can still govern effectively. After years of controversy — from gender reform disputes to questions over party finances — his early months as first minister were focused on damage control. He calmed internal rows, steadied the government, and tried to draw attention back to everyday issues such as public services, poverty, and transport.

An ally of the first minister described his approach bluntly: “Stop digging, get delivering.”

Swinney points to practical achievements — scrapping peak rail fares, modest reductions in child poverty, and moves to lift the two-child benefit cap in Scotland. Critics, meanwhile, highlight NHS waiting times, cuts to college budgets, and prison overcrowding as proof that the government’s record is faltering.

Financial watchdogs have also repeatedly warned that Scotland’s levels of social spending are unsustainable, and surveys show a decline in public trust in the government’s ability to act in Scotland’s best interests.

Yet Swinney’s political fortunes may be shifting. Labour’s early surge under Starmer has stalled, while the rise of Reform UK has split the unionist vote, leaving the SNP with a potential opening. Current polls show the party leading Labour by double digits, though its overall popularity remains below the heights of the Sturgeon era.

At the conference, Swinney will push his message of stability and purpose. He is expected to argue that the “only uncontested route” to another referendum is for the SNP to win an outright majority of seats in next May’s Holyrood election — a repeat of the 2011 victory that forced then–Prime Minister David Cameron to allow the 2014 referendum.

Others within the independence movement advocate a more radical stance: treating the 2026 election itself as a de facto referendum, with a majority of votes for pro-independence parties deemed a mandate to begin negotiations on separation. Swinney’s team views this as a political dead end — a gesture that might please activists but alienate moderate voters.

Outside the constitutional wrangling, Swinney is also crafting his image as a statesman. Recent appearances with world leaders, including Donald Trump, and statements on international crises such as Gaza and Ukraine, are part of a broader effort to project authority beyond Scotland.

Monday’s keynote speech will be his chance to show that this is his SNP — distinct from the Sturgeon years but grounded in continuity. Expect talk of independence, yes, but also competence, compassion, and delivery. Swinney knows that to keep his party alive, he must do more than promise a nation’s future — he must prove he can govern its present.