Netanyahu sends intelligence chief to Qatar to explore Hamas proposal; Hezbollah signals willingness to halt attacks if hostilities in Gaza pause

Hopes for a Gaza ceasefire and de-escalation on the Israel-Lebanon border surged as Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu dispatched his intelligence chief to Qatar. This move aims to resume stalled negotiations with Hamas, which has indicated its acceptance of a ceasefire proposal. Hezbollah, Hamas’s Lebanese ally, has also expressed willingness to cease its attacks if an agreement in Gaza is reached.

On Thursday, Hezbollah claimed responsibility for firing 200 rockets into Israel, retaliating for a strike that killed one of its top commanders. However, a Hezbollah official stated that the group would stop its attacks as soon as a Gaza ceasefire agreement is in place.

The momentum for a ceasefire and the release of hostages held for nearly nine months has increased with Hamas presenting a revised proposal. Israel has shown readiness to re-engage in talks that had previously reached an impasse.

David Barnea, the head of Mossad, travelled to Doha to meet Qatar’s Prime Minister, Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al-Thani, to discuss Hamas’s proposal for pausing the nearly nine-month conflict. After initial meetings, Barnea returned to Israel, and negotiations are set to resume next week, as confirmed by Netanyahu’s office.

The White House has described the latest Hamas ceasefire proposal as a “breakthrough,” establishing a framework for a potential hostage deal. A senior US official stated that the framework is now in place, and the next steps involve working out the implementation details. Both Hamas and Israel have shown significant adjustments to their positions, fostering optimism.

The negotiations have focused on transitioning from the first to the second phase of an agreement. The first phase involves a six-week truce, during which Hamas would release elderly, sick, and female hostages. In exchange, Israel would withdraw from Gaza cities and release Palestinian detainees. The second phase would involve the release of all remaining hostages, the return of deceased bodies, a permanent end to hostilities, and a full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza. Phase three would commence with Gaza’s reconstruction.

A Palestinian official involved in the peace efforts indicated that Hamas’s new proposal could lead to a framework agreement if embraced by Israel. Hamas has reportedly dropped its pre-condition of an Israeli commitment to a permanent ceasefire before an agreement and is open to negotiating this during the first six-week phase.

US President Joe Biden and Netanyahu discussed the Hamas response and the possible terms of a deal. Biden welcomed Netanyahu’s decision to resume the stalled talks. An Israeli negotiator expressed optimism about the deal’s potential for implementation.

A Gaza ceasefire could also lead to de-escalation between Hezbollah and Israel on the Lebanese border. Hezbollah has pledged to halt its attacks in support of Hamas if a ceasefire is reached in Gaza.

Hezbollah’s deputy leader, Khalil al-Hayya, briefed leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah on the latest developments in Beirut. Deputy Secretary General Naim Qassem indicated that while a full-scale war with Israel is not imminent, the group remains prepared for any extreme scenarios.

In Tel Aviv’s Habima Square, mothers of Hamas-held hostages urged Israeli leaders to finalize the agreement. Shira Albag, mother of 19-year-old Liri Albag, called on Netanyahu to demonstrate leadership and courage by signing the deal.

Within Israel, the far-right faction of Netanyahu’s coalition government poses a significant obstacle. National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir warned of potentially exiting the coalition during a heated security cabinet session, criticizing Netanyahu for private discussions with key security officials and excluding the cabinet from significant decisions.

Analysis

Political

The resumption of Israel-Hamas talks under Netanyahu’s directive is a significant political manoeuvre. By sending the intelligence chief to Qatar, Netanyahu signals a willingness to explore diplomatic solutions, which may strengthen his international standing. Domestically, this move may consolidate support among moderates and those advocating for peace. However, it risks alienating the far-right faction within his coalition, represented by National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir, who has threatened to exit the government over unilateral decisions. The outcome of these talks could either bolster Netanyahu’s political capital or lead to a fracturing of his governing coalition.

Social

The potential ceasefire and negotiations highlight a broader societal yearning for peace and stability. The prolonged conflict has strained communities and families, especially those with members held hostage. The public support for a ceasefire and the release of hostages reflects a societal consensus on the need for humanitarian solutions over prolonged conflict. This sentiment is echoed by demonstrations in Tel Aviv, where families of hostages are urging leaders to finalize an agreement, emphasizing the human cost of the ongoing hostilities.

Racial

The conflict’s racial dynamics, particularly between Israelis and Palestinians, are underscored by these negotiations. The recognition of the suffering on both sides and the efforts to reach an agreement signify a critical step towards addressing deep-seated racial tensions. The equitable treatment of hostages and detainees, regardless of their ethnicity, is pivotal in fostering a more inclusive dialogue and reducing racial animosity. Successful negotiations could set a precedent for more racially inclusive policies and interactions in the region.

Gender

Gender dynamics are particularly relevant in this context, as many of the hostages are women and children. The release of elderly, sick, and female hostages as part of the first phase of the agreement underscores the importance of addressing gender-specific vulnerabilities in conflict situations. Additionally, the economic and emotional burden on women, who often become the primary caregivers in the absence of male family members, highlights the need for gender-sensitive approaches in peace negotiations. Ensuring the release and proper rehabilitation of female hostages can contribute to greater gender equality and support within affected communities.

Economical

Economically, a ceasefire and subsequent peace agreement could lead to significant benefits for the region. The cessation of hostilities would allow for the reconstruction of Gaza, potentially attracting international aid and investment, which could revitalize the local economy. Improved security conditions would also enhance trade and tourism, benefiting both Israeli and Palestinian economies. However, the economic stability hinges on the successful implementation of all phases of the agreement and sustained peace, necessitating robust and transparent mechanisms to ensure compliance and address any violations promptly.