Iran’s parliament backs closure of oil superhighway after US bombs nuclear sites; Trump eyes regime change.

Tensions in the Gulf have escalated dramatically after Iran’s parliament approved a measure to close the Strait of Hormuz—one of the world’s most crucial oil trade routes—following US airstrikes ordered by President Donald Trump on three Iranian nuclear facilities.

The military action, carried out in coordination with Israel, marks the most significant Western assault on Iranian soil since the 1979 revolution. With fears of a broader regional war mounting, analysts now warn that Tehran may weaponise its geography by shutting down a waterway through which over a fifth of the world’s oil flows each day.

The strait, wedged tightly between Iran and Oman, spans just 33km at its narrowest point, with a shipping lane barely 3km wide. Yet through this narrow corridor sails nearly 21 million barrels of oil daily—alongside much of the world’s liquified natural gas—making it a lifeline not just for Middle Eastern producers but for global energy markets.

Iran’s foreign minister, Seyed Abbas Araghchi, issued a grim warning following the US strikes, declaring that Trump’s decision would have “everlasting consequences.” While Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has yet to confirm any action on the strait, he denounced Israel’s role in the conflict, calling their attack “a grave mistake” that “must be punished.”

Iran has long threatened to block the strait, often as rhetorical bluster during times of diplomatic strain. But with its parliament now formally approving the closure, and with fresh US-Israeli strikes lighting up its nuclear infrastructure, the threat feels far closer to reality.

If Tehran were to follow through, the fallout would be swift and severe. Oil prices would surge overnight. Inflation would spike. And global markets would reel under the shockwaves. Ironically, the move would also harm Iran’s own economy. Its sanctioned oil exports—heavily reliant on China—also pass through Hormuz, meaning a closure would effectively strangle its own trade.

“The punishment continues,” Khamenei declared in a social media post, signalling a longer-term strategy that may play out economically as much as militarily.

China, the world’s second-largest economy and Iran’s biggest customer, could become collateral damage. Roughly 90% of Iranian oil exports head to Chinese refineries, and Beijing has a vested interest in keeping the strait open. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio seized on this leverage, publicly urging China to intervene diplomatically. “It’s economic suicide for them if they do it,” he warned on Fox News.

There are already signs of disruption. Satellite data suggests that several supertankers turned around or stalled inside the strait following the US-led bombardment. The US Fifth Fleet, based in Bahrain, is on high alert, tasked with defending commercial vessels amid the rising threat of naval conflict.

Trump, meanwhile, has raised eyebrows with talk of potential regime change in Iran. Speaking to reporters, he said, “The regime is dangerous. It’s time to consider alternatives.” While he stopped short of outlining specific plans, the rhetoric adds another combustible layer to an already fragile standoff.

The Gulf’s fate now hangs in the balance. Whether Iran acts on its parliamentary vote remains unclear, but the message is loud and unmistakable: if the Strait of Hormuz closes, the economic aftershocks will be felt worldwide.