Pentagon warns Golden Dome missile shield won’t be fully ready before Trump leaves office

Donald Trump’s ambitious Golden Dome missile defence programme, promised to be a game-changer for US national security, is facing a harsh reality: it won’t be fully operational by the end of his presidency. Despite the president’s bold claims that the space-based weapon system would be ready within three years, Pentagon insiders reveal that the programme will only reach demonstration stage by 2028, well after Trump’s term concludes.

Announced in the Oval Office last week with the US Space Force set to lead under General Michael Guetlein, Trump expressed confidence that Golden Dome would be “fully operational” before he leaves office. Yet, according to Pentagon sources, the plan is far less optimistic. The defence department’s current strategy calls for phased implementation, with an initial focus on establishing the satellite and communication networks required to track missile threats. The weapons systems intended to destroy missiles from space are still years from readiness.

Within 18 months, the Pentagon expects to have the foundational infrastructure in place—a sophisticated military network of satellites and space-based sensors capable of tracking hundreds of inbound missiles. However, at this early phase, Golden Dome will lack any space-based missile interception capability. Instead, the US will continue to rely heavily on existing ground defences, including approximately 40 Patriot missile batteries stationed in Alaska and California, to counter potential intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) threats.

By the end of Trump’s term, Pentagon officials anticipate having integrated space-based sensors and communications, possibly attempting to combine them with as-yet untested space weapons. But those counter-missile weapons, designed to intercept missiles during their “boost phase” — the first 30 seconds to two minutes after launch when a missile’s heat signature is strongest — remain under development and face significant technical obstacles. Experts warn that the challenge of firing interceptors from space with enough force to destroy missiles within Earth’s atmosphere may take many years to overcome.

The Golden Dome project’s complexity is further underscored by ongoing struggles with existing missile defence technology. Ground-based interceptors, under development since the 1980s, currently boast only about a 20% success rate at destroying missiles during their glide phase. These difficulties highlight the daunting task ahead for Golden Dome’s space-based weapons.

Financially, the Trump administration has budgeted approximately $175 billion for the project through 2028. This total breaks down to $17.6 billion allocated for 2026, roughly $50 billion for 2027, and around $100 billion for 2028. Officials caution that the final cost may rise significantly, depending on the programme’s scale. Trump has pushed for a system capable of defending against up to 100 ballistic missiles, which could require thousands of satellites that must be periodically replaced as they naturally de-orbit.

In a recent Truth Social post, Trump floated the idea of Canada joining the Golden Dome programme. However, he claimed Canada would have to pay $61 billion or become the 51st US state to access the system free of charge. Pentagon insiders say this figure is unclear and that Canada’s potential participation likely involves sharing satellite and radar data rather than full membership in the project.

Interestingly, the programme was originally dubbed “Moonshot” by the White House National Security Council, but Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth rejected the name. Instead, he introduced a tiered plan with “silver,” “gold,” and “platinum” levels, with only the gold tier costed out in detail so far.

As the Golden Dome missile defence programme lumbers towards 2028 for any meaningful demonstration, its chances of delivering on Trump’s promises remain highly uncertain. The immense technical, financial, and strategic hurdles raise serious questions about the feasibility of space-based missile defence within this decade.