Fertility rates drop worldwide, sub-Saharan Africa to see birth surge

In a groundbreaking study released by the Lancet, researchers predict a significant global shift in population dynamics by the end of the century. According to the findings, fertility rates across the globe are on a steep decline, leading to a situation where, by 2100, the population in 198 of 204 countries will begin to shrink. This dramatic change will primarily affect richer nations, while most births are expected to occur in poorer countries.

The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington spearheaded the research. It unveils a future where sub-Saharan Africa emerges as a dominant demographic force, expected to account for half of all births in 2100. Conversely, countries like Somalia, Tonga, Niger, Chad, Samoa, and Tajikistan will maintain population levels through their sustained fertility rates.

Natalia V Bhattacharjee, a leading voice in the study, emphasizes the profound implications of these findings. She highlights the potential for a complete reconfiguration of the global economy, the international balance of power, and societal organization. Bhattacharjee points out the critical need for a global acknowledgement of migration challenges and the enhancement of global aid networks to support economic growth amidst fierce competition for migrants.

The study draws attention to the emerging divide between “baby boom” regions in poorer countries and “baby bust” scenarios in wealthier nations, stressing the economic growth challenges and the burden of supporting growing populations. Austin E Schumacher, another lead author, calls attention to the unique challenges sub-Saharan Africa faces. He underscores the importance of managing population growth risks to avert potential humanitarian catastrophes.

Schumacher advocates for prioritizing efforts in climate change mitigation, healthcare infrastructure improvement, child mortality rate reduction, and the eradication of extreme poverty in sub-Saharan Africa. He also emphasizes the necessity of ensuring women’s reproductive rights, family planning, and girls’ education as top priorities for governments worldwide.

The Lancet study bases its predictions on an extensive array of data sources, including surveys, census data, and historical records, spanning from 1950 to 2021. This comprehensive analysis is part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study, a collaborative effort involving over 8,000 scientists from more than 150 countries