JPMorgan CEO warns Trump’s tariff plans could hike inflation, cause recession, and isolate the US
JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon has broken his silence on Donald Trump’s economic strategy, issuing a grave warning in his annual shareholder letter that the former president’s aggressive new tariffs risk igniting a global downturn, fuelling inflation, and isolating the United States on the world stage.
In a sharply worded rebuke, Dimon did not mince his words. “The recent tariffs will likely increase inflation and are causing many to consider a greater probability of a recession,” he wrote. “Whether or not the menu of tariffs causes a recession remains in question, but it will slow down growth.”
Dimon, often seen as the voice of Wall Street, signalled that Trump’s sweeping trade moves—particularly those targeting China—could backfire badly, undermining America’s economic strength and fracturing global alliances.
“America First is fine, as long as it doesn’t end up being America alone,” he warned. “If the Western world’s military and economic alliances were to fragment, America itself would inevitably weaken over time.”
He cautioned that the stability of global markets depends not only on strong economic foundations but also on cooperation between military and diplomatic partners. “It is extremely important to recognise that security and economics are interconnected – ‘economic’ warfare has caused military warfare in the past,” he added.
Although Dimon acknowledged the real damage done by China’s trade practices, he suggested Trump’s retaliatory tariffs are excessively harsh and could push both the US and the global economy into crisis.
This marks a dramatic shift in tone from January, when Dimon told CNBC that a modest rise in inflation might be worth it if tariffs revived American manufacturing. Now, however, he’s sounding the alarm—loudly.
Dimon joins a growing chorus of business leaders and economists concerned that Trump’s economic nationalism could derail global stability. In his letter, he painted a grim picture of what lies ahead: continued market volatility, inflationary pressures, weakened alliances, and a potentially sharp economic contraction.
Even Wall Street is not immune. After a record-breaking high just weeks ago, US markets are flirting with bear territory. “Even with the recent decline in market values, prices remain relatively high,” Dimon noted. “These significant and somewhat unprecedented forces cause us to remain very cautious.”
In a sobering assessment, he declared: “We face the most perilous and complicated geopolitical and economic environment since World War II.”
Dimon’s remarks come at a pivotal moment as Trump mounts a return to the White House with a renewed focus on economic protectionism. His proposed tariffs are broader and more punitive than many anticipated, sparking concerns among America’s trading partners and domestic businesses alike.
Despite these mounting threats, Dimon conceded that the US economy had, until recently, shown resilience. “Consumers are still spending (though with some recent weakening) and businesses still healthy,” he observed.
But as global tensions intensify—from Ukraine to the Middle East—and with inflationary headwinds now being fanned by tariff policy, the JPMorgan CEO appears less optimistic. His message is clear: America’s strength lies not only in its economic might, but in its cooperation with the rest of the world.
Whether policymakers heed his warning remains to be seen. But one thing is certain—Jamie Dimon is no longer on the fence.
