With Trump back in the White House, doubts over US commitment to Australia’s security are growing

Australians have long taken US protection for granted, believing the ANZUS alliance would ensure America’s support in any major conflict. But that assumption is now crumbling. With Donald Trump back in the White House and openly questioning US military commitments, Australians are waking up to an unsettling reality: the United States might not come to their aid.

New polling shows a sharp drop in public confidence that Washington will honour its security guarantees. For Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, this presents a major challenge. His government has doubled down on the AUKUS pact, committing billions to nuclear submarines and deeper integration with US forces. Yet, if America’s reliability is in doubt, does this strategy still make sense?

Trump’s return has amplified existing fears that the US may abandon its allies when politically convenient. During his first term, he cast doubt on America’s alliances, often berating NATO partners and suggesting that countries should fend for themselves. His second term has continued in the same vein. He has already demanded greater financial contributions from allies and suggested that US forces in the Indo-Pacific might be scaled back.

For Australia, the implications are serious. The country has tied itself closely to US military planning, particularly in countering China’s regional ambitions. But if America pulls back, Australia could be left dangerously exposed.

The latest surveys reveal a dramatic shift in sentiment. Only 42% of Australians now believe the US would defend Australia in a crisis, down from 68% in 2021. More than half of respondents think Australia should be more independent in its defence strategy, even if it means rethinking AUKUS. Support for closer ties with Asian partners, including Japan and India, has increased, as Australians look for alternatives to Washington’s uncertain commitment.

These numbers present a major dilemma for Albanese. His government has championed AUKUS as a cornerstone of national security, but growing doubts over US reliability may force a rethink.

With trust in US protection wavering, some experts argue that Australia must take greater responsibility for its own defence. That could mean expanding domestic military capabilities, strengthening ties with regional allies like Japan, India, and Indonesia, and even reconsidering its nuclear policy.

For now, Albanese remains committed to AUKUS, but pressure is mounting for a backup plan. The Prime Minister will need to reassure both the public and his allies that Australia is not blindly following Washington down an uncertain path. The days of unquestioned faith in America’s protection are over. The real question now is: what comes next?