A new survey suggests the coalition is gaining ground, with Albanese’s government set to lose key seats, putting dutton in a strong position to take control in the next federal election

As Australia heads into the crucial 2025 federal election, a new poll shows that Opposition Leader Peter Dutton is on track to secure an outright majority, leaving Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s government facing significant losses. The survey, conducted by Accent Research and Redbridge Group, predicts that Dutton’s Coalition will gain at least nine seats from Labor, shifting the balance in key electorates across the country.

The poll, which surveyed nearly 5,000 Australians, paints a stark picture for the Albanese government. It suggests that the Coalition is set to win 42 seats comfortably, with a further 22 seats still within reach. This would give Dutton’s team a commanding 64 seats, while Labor is projected to win 47, holding a slim lead in only 12 additional seats, totalling 59. In this volatile political landscape, the Greens are expected to secure two seats, while Independents are predicted to win five, with another four seats still up for grabs.

The survey reveals that several key Labor-held seats are at risk of flipping, particularly in New South Wales, Victoria, and Tasmania. Some of the most vulnerable electorates include Macarthur, Robertson, Bennelong, Paterson, and Gilmore in New South Wales, as well as Aston in Victoria, Lingiari in the Northern Territory, and the newly created seat of Bullwinkel in Western Australia. These shifts are not merely theoretical – they point to a tangible erosion of Labor’s stronghold in traditionally safe areas.

Dutton’s strategy of targeting outer suburban and regional areas appears to be paying off, with a noticeable swing of around five per cent towards the Coalition in these regions. The cost of living crisis, which has plagued Australian families for months, seems to be central to this shift. The Coalition has been particularly vocal in calling out the Albanese government for its failure to deliver on key election promises, including the pledge of $275 cheaper electricity by 2025. As families struggle with rising costs, Dutton’s messages resonate more deeply with voters who feel the pinch.

The poll results indicate that the Coalition’s outreach efforts in these crucial areas have been effective, pushing them closer to securing the seats they need for an overall majority. The electorate’s frustration with the government’s economic record, particularly around energy prices, has amplified the sense that a change in leadership is needed. Dutton’s campaign appears to be building momentum as Australians look for an alternative to the current administration.

On the other hand, Labor’s position is becoming increasingly precarious. Despite winning 47 seats, the party’s hold on power is weakening as nine seats are forecast to flip to the Coalition. In addition, 14 seats remain too close to call, leaving Labor with little room for error. Among these tight races are electorates in New South Wales, such as Shortland, Werriwa, and Macquarie, as well as in Victoria, where Conrangamite, Chisholm, and Hawke are in the balance. The uncertainty surrounding these seats only heightens the sense that Albanese’s government is facing an uphill battle.

The survey’s findings suggest that, despite Labour’s slim lead in certain areas, Dutton’s Coalition is poised for victory, with the potential to shift the electoral map significantly. With the 2025 election now only a few months away, the pressure is mounting on both leaders to shore up their support bases. Albanese has yet to announce any major reforms or new policies that could reverse the momentum Dutton is gaining in the polls.

As the election approaches, the public’s focus remains firmly on economic issues, with many voters feeling that the government has failed to meet its promises. Dutton’s ability to channel this discontent into electoral success could prove crucial as the Coalition aims to re-establish itself as the dominant force in Australian politics.

In the coming months, political analysts will be watching closely to see if the Coalition can maintain its momentum and whether Labor can regain its footing. The stakes are high, and with voter sentiment shifting rapidly, the 2025 election is shaping up to be one of the most competitive in recent memory. As Dutton continues to challenge Albanese on key issues like the cost of living, the race for the prime ministership is becoming increasingly tight.