As polls close in on election eve, Pennsylvania remains a critical battleground, with candidates neck-and-neck in several key states

The race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris is shaping up to be a tightly contested battle as the nation approaches Election Day. Recent polling from seven crucial swing states indicates that the candidates are virtually tied, with Pennsylvania emerging as a pivotal point in the election.

In Pennsylvania, the polling is exceedingly close, with Harris leading Trump by a mere 0.2 points in the FiveThirtyEight weighted average. Other recent surveys have shown an even tighter race: a New York Times/Siena poll and a Morning Consult poll both report a deadlock at 48%, while Emerson College has Trump slightly ahead at 49%-48%. Conversely, a YouGov poll has Harris leading 48%-46%.

Nevada presents a similar scenario, with polling reflecting a tight race. The FiveThirtyEight average shows Trump with a slight lead of 0.3 points, but the Times/Siena poll indicates a Harris advantage of 49%-46%, while YouGov also shows Harris ahead at 48%-47%. Emerson’s poll displays a tie at 48%.

Georgia exhibits a razor-thin margin for Trump, who leads by 0.7 points according to the FiveThirtyEight average. He is shown to have a 50%-49% edge in Emerson’s polling and 50%-48% in the Morning Consult survey, although a Times/Siena poll indicates Harris is slightly ahead at 48%-47%.

North Carolina also reflects a narrow lead for Trump at 0.9 points in the FiveThirtyEight data, with various polls indicating tight margins. While Trump leads by 49%-48% in both Emerson and Morning Consult surveys, Harris manages a lead of 48%-46% in the Times/Siena survey.

In Michigan, Harris holds a marginal edge, leading by one point in the FiveThirtyEight average. She captures a 50%-48% lead in Emerson’s polling and 49%-48% in Morning Consult, but the candidates are tied at 47% in the Times/Siena survey.

Wisconsin leans slightly in favour of Harris, who has a lead of 1.1 points according to FiveThirtyEight. She leads Trump 48%-45% in YouGov’s polling and 49%-47% per Times/Siena, though the Emerson poll shows them tied at 49%, while Morning Consult gives Trump a narrow lead.

Arizona marks the only swing state where Trump maintains a more significant lead, at 2.2 points in the FiveThirtyEight average. He leads 49%-45% according to Times/Siena and 50%-48% in Emerson, but a tie at 48% is reported by Morning Consult.

As for who is favoured to win the overall election, the outcome remains uncertain. FiveThirtyEight provides Trump with a 52% chance of victory, while statistician Nate Silver offers slightly narrower odds at 50.4%. Should the current polling accurately reflect the voters’ decisions across these swing states, Harris may edge out a narrow electoral win. However, with the potential for polling inaccuracies, even minor shifts could lead to significant implications for either candidate.