MPs’ rejection cleverly raises concerns over party direction and opposition effectiveness

The final showdown for the Conservative Party leadership will be between Kemi Badenoch and Robert Jenrick, marking a significant rightward shift within the party following the latest voting round. This choice, made by the 121 remaining Conservative MPs, reflects a preference for a more extreme agenda, abandoning any aspirations for a centrist renewal that James Cleverly represented.

Cleverly’s effective speech at the recent party conference had raised hopes for a return to a more moderate Tory vision, but he ultimately failed to secure a place in the final two. Badenoch and Jenrick represent starkly different positions: Badenoch’s controversial statements include questioning maternity pay and advocating for punitive measures against civil servants, while Jenrick has claimed UK special forces are killing suspects and has vowed to withdraw from the European human rights system.

Martin Kettle argues that this outcome signifies a deeper existential crisis for the party, which has already suffered a significant electoral defeat. The decision to overlook Cleverly’s more conciliatory approach suggests that the Conservative Party is not interested in addressing its issues or appealing to the wider electorate.

Public sentiment seems to favour Badenoch, known for her provocative style and aversion to consensus. In contrast, Jenrick’s focus on immigration and Europe aligns him with more traditional Tory concerns. Regardless of who prevails, Kettle posits that this election holds considerable implications for the party’s future.

Despite the current chaos, recent polling indicates the Tories are closing the gap with Labour, suggesting they still hold relevance in British politics. However, with party membership dwindling—only 139,000 participated in the last leadership contest in 2022—the conservative base appears to be increasingly isolated.

SKY NEWS

James Cleverly’s unexpected defeat in the Tory leadership race has been attributed to a combination of rogue voting and a poorly executed strategy by some MPs. Initially seen as the frontrunner, Cleverly’s support dwindled after some of his backers allegedly voted for Robert Jenrick in an attempt to eliminate Kemi Badenoch from the contest. This move backfired, leading to Cleverly’s shock loss, which surprised many when announced by the 1922 Committee chairman, Bob Blackman.

Reports suggest that a group of at least five MPs initially voted for Cleverly to bolster his position, planning to switch their votes to Badenoch in the final round. This tactical maneuvering, characterized by indiscipline and miscalculation, undermined Cleverly’s campaign. Despite being the victim of these shenanigans, Cleverly remained steadfast in his approach, expressing a desire for straightforward support from MPs without engaging in any deal-making.

After polling 39 votes in the third round, compared to 31 for Jenrick and 30 for Badenoch, Cleverly’s inability to navigate the complexities of tactical voting contributed to his downfall. The unfolding events highlight the chaotic dynamics within the Tory party and the challenges of maintaining loyalty among supporters in a highly competitive leadership contest.

THE TELEGRAPH

James Cleverly’s exit from the Tory leadership race on 9 October 2024 marked a surprising twist, as tactical voting by his supporters reportedly backfired. Despite being the frontrunner after the third ballot, securing 39 votes, Cleverly’s support dwindled to just 37 votes in the final ballot, landing him in last place. Kemi Badenoch emerged as the frontrunner with 42 votes, closely followed by Robert Jenrick with 41.

The shock result drew gasps from MPs as Cleverly’s campaign team revealed that some of his supporters had independently decided to vote for Jenrick, believing Cleverly was secure. Their aim was to elevate Jenrick’s position while excluding Badenoch, but this strategy proved disastrous. A Cleverly-supporting MP lamented the “disastrous results,” acknowledging that such tactics could easily misfire in a small electorate.

While Cleverly’s core team maintained a straightforward approach—encouraging votes solely for him—rogue actions by some supporters led to unintended consequences. A veteran Tory MP noted that the fluctuations in votes between the third and fourth rounds stemmed from poor organization and a lack of momentum among the candidates.

With Cleverly out of the race, the focus now shifts to the final two candidates, Badenoch and Jenrick, who will campaign before Conservative members, with the winner to be announced on 2 November. They will also participate in a televised question-and-answer session on GB News, further escalating the competition.

BBC

In the wake of James Cleverly’s unexpected elimination from the Tory leadership race, political analysts are left pondering how such a frontrunner could stumble at a crucial juncture. Cleverly’s inability to secure additional votes, despite leading in the previous round, raises questions. Theories surrounding his downfall range from Conservative MPs mistakenly believing he was safe and thus voting tactically to support other candidates, to the effectiveness of the campaigns run by Kemi Badenoch and Robert Jenrick.

With the final candidates now established as Badenoch and Jenrick, the dynamics of the race shift significantly. Centrists within the party express disappointment, as both candidates align more closely with the party’s right wing. Badenoch is seen as a rising star known for her assertive conservatism, while Jenrick has shifted rightward since entering Parliament, particularly on immigration issues.

The contest now transitions from a small electorate of 121 MPs to tens of thousands of Conservative Party members across the UK. Team Jenrick positions themselves as underdogs, eager to challenge Badenoch to debates and assert their presence. Conversely, Team Badenoch highlights her strong performance in the MPs’ ballot and her popularity among party members.

As the campaign ramps up, both candidates are expected to focus on key issues that resonate with the Conservative membership. Ballot papers will be distributed shortly, with a voting window of just over two weeks. The successor to Rishi Sunak will be announced on 2 November, marking a pivotal moment in UK politics as the government prepares to unveil its first budget and a new Leader of the Opposition is appointed. By that time, the political landscape will be clearer, setting the stage for the coming years.