Vice President Kamala Harris’ recent surge in polls and record-breaking July fundraising bring her nearly level with former president Donald Trump, reshaping the 2024 presidential race

Vice President Kamala Harris has gained significant momentum in the 2024 presidential race, closing the gap with former President Donald Trump as a result of a series of favourable developments. Following President Joe Biden’s decision to end his reelection bid and endorse Harris, the Vice President’s campaign has seen a notable rise in both polling numbers and fundraising.

As of early August, Harris and Trump are nearly tied in national polling averages. According to The Hill/Decision Desk HQ, Trump holds a slim lead with 47.1% support compared to Harris’ 47%. This marks a dramatic shift from the more than 6-point advantage Trump enjoyed when Harris first entered the race after Biden’s withdrawal.

Polling data from Nate Silver’s electoral forecast also shows Harris gaining ground. For the first time, Harris leads Trump in this forecast, reversing the previous trend where Trump consistently had the edge over both Biden and Harris. Silver now considers the race a “toss-up,” reflecting the heightened competitiveness of the contest.

In recent weeks, Harris has made notable strides in several key battleground states. For example, in North Carolina, Trump’s lead has dwindled from 10 points to just 3 points. This shift is significant, given that Democrats have not won North Carolina in a presidential election since Barack Obama’s narrow victory in 2008. North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper has expressed confidence in Harris’ ability to flip the state.

Polling in other crucial states also reveals a narrowing gap. In Nevada, Trump’s lead has decreased from 9 points to 3 points since Biden’s departure. Similarly, in Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Michigan, polls show Harris closing the distance with Trump by 2, 4, and 3 points respectively.

Harris’ recent performance is highlighted by a CBS News/YouGov poll showing her leading Trump by 1 percentage point nationally and tied at 50% in key battleground states. This improvement in polling figures is accompanied by an uptick in enthusiasm among Democratic voters, with 85% indicating they plan to vote in the fall, up from 81% last month.

A Morning Consult poll further underscores Harris’ growing appeal, showing her leading Trump by 4 points, marking the largest lead for a Democratic presidential candidate in almost a year. Harris also leads Trump among independents by 5 points and among voters aged 18 to 35 by 9 points—demographics where Biden had previously underperformed.

Additionally, Harris has performed better than Biden in hypothetical three-way matchups that include independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. While Trump led Biden in previous polls including Kennedy, Harris now holds a narrow 1.5-point lead in these scenarios, as per averages from The Hill and FiveThirtyEight.

Despite these gains, Trump’s pollster Tony Fabrizio has suggested that Harris may be experiencing a temporary “honeymoon period” with positive headlines that could eventually wane. The upcoming months will be crucial as both candidates work to consolidate support and drive voter turnout leading up to the fall election.

Analysis

Political: Harris’ recent surge in the polls reflects a significant shift in the 2024 presidential race. Her increase in support comes at a critical time, as former President Trump had initially established a commanding lead. The endorsement from President Biden and her record-breaking fundraising in July have bolstered Harris’ campaign, positioning her as a formidable contender. The race is now considered a toss-up, which suggests that both candidates will need to intensify their efforts to sway undecided voters and secure crucial swing states.

Harris’ ability to close the gap with Trump indicates a growing recognition of her as a viable presidential candidate. This shift could have implications for the overall dynamics of the race, as both campaigns will need to adjust their strategies to address the evolving political landscape. The focus will likely shift towards key battleground states where the race remains particularly tight.

Social: Harris’ rising popularity reflects broader societal shifts and changing voter attitudes. The increase in polling numbers can be attributed to a combination of factors, including a more engaged Democratic base and a favorable response to Harris’ campaign messaging. Her ability to appeal to younger voters and independents, who were previously more aligned with Biden, suggests that she is effectively addressing the concerns and priorities of these groups.

Additionally, the heightened enthusiasm among Democratic voters points to a growing sense of urgency and optimism within the party. The focus on addressing issues like economic inequality and engaging with diverse demographics is resonating with a broad audience, which may contribute to Harris’ improved standing in the polls.

Racial: The impact of racial dynamics on Harris’ candidacy is significant, given her background as the first Black and South Asian Vice President. Her rise in the polls may be influenced by her ability to connect with voters who value diversity and representation. Harris’ campaign has the potential to address racial justice issues and advocate for policies that promote equity, which could enhance her appeal among minority communities.

Furthermore, her candidacy challenges traditional racial and political narratives, presenting an opportunity to reshape the conversation around race and representation in American politics. The support from diverse demographic groups may play a crucial role in her overall campaign strategy.

Gender: As a female candidate, Harris’ campaign is also a notable moment for gender representation in U.S. politics. Her increased polling numbers highlight the growing acceptance and support for women in leadership roles. Harris’ success may inspire greater confidence in female candidates and contribute to broader discussions about gender equality in politics.

Her ability to outperform Biden in certain demographics, including younger voters, underscores the importance of gender dynamics in the electoral race. Harris’ campaign has the potential to address gender-related issues and advocate for policies that support women’s rights and opportunities.

Economic: Harris’ improved polling figures are closely tied to economic concerns that resonate with voters. Her campaign’s focus on addressing the high cost of living and economic inequality aligns with the priorities of many voters who are grappling with financial challenges. The narrowing gap in swing states where economic issues are prominent suggests that Harris’ platform is effectively addressing these concerns.

The record-breaking fundraising for Harris indicates strong financial support, which is critical for sustaining a competitive campaign. Her ability to mobilize resources and engage with voters on economic issues may contribute to her growing momentum and overall campaign success.