YouGov poll predicts labour to secure the largest parliamentary majority since 1832, while Conservatives brace for significant losses, particularly in London

In the final stretch before the UK general election, a groundbreaking YouGov poll has projected Labour under Sir Keir Starmer to achieve an unprecedented electoral triumph, potentially securing 431 seats in Parliament. This outcome, if realized, would mark the largest majority for any single party since the Great Reform Act of 1832, reshaping the political landscape for years to come.

The poll, based on responses from over 42,000 individuals across the country, forecasts Labour’s dominance with a commanding 212-seat majority. Conversely, it paints a dire picture for the Conservative Party, estimating their seats to plummet to a mere 102 MPs, representing a loss of over 70% compared to their tally five years ago.

Key figures in this electoral saga include Sir Keir Starmer, whose leadership has galvanized Labour’s campaign with promises of transformative policies in healthcare, education, and economic recovery. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, facing the threat of losing his own constituency seat, has campaigned vigorously but appears vulnerable amidst widespread dissatisfaction with Conservative governance.

Sky News

In the final projection by YouGov for the 2024 General Election, Labour is poised for a historic landslide victory, with Sir Keir Starmer expected to secure a majority of 212 seats. This would mark the largest majority for any single party since 1832. According to the projection, Labour is set to win 431 seats, surpassing its previous peak under Tony Blair in 1997.

Conversely, the Conservatives are projected to face significant losses, with only 102 seats expected, down from 365 in 2019 under Boris Johnson. This would represent a substantial decline and position the Tories predominantly in southern regions of England, facing near wipeout in the North East, North West, and Wales.

Key figures in Conservative leadership, including 16 out of 26 cabinet ministers such as Chancellor Jeremy Hunt, former leader Sir Iain Duncan Smith, and potential future leader Miriam Cates, are among those projected to lose their seats.

Other parties in the projection include the Liberal Democrats with 72 seats, SNP dropping to 18 seats from 48, Reform UK expected to secure three seats, and the Greens projected to hold two seats.

YouGov’s methodology involved polling 47,758 voters in Great Britain from June 19 to July 2, providing a central estimate with potential ranges for seat allocations due to margin of error. The projected vote shares indicate Labour leading with 39%, followed by Conservatives at 22%, Reform at 15%, Liberal Democrats at 12%, Greens at 7%, SNP at 3%, Plaid at 1%, and others at 2%.

This projection sets a record swing of 14.3% from Conservatives to Labour, highlighting a significant shift in public sentiment compared to historical elections.

Politico

The latest polls ahead of the UK General Election paint a grim picture for the Conservative Party, with Keir Starmer’s Labour projected to secure a massive landslide victory. According to YouGov’s final MRP poll, Labour is set to win 431 seats, marking a significant increase of 229 seats from 2019. In contrast, the Tories are expected to plummet to 102 seats, a staggering drop of 263 seats from the previous election. This would give Labour a commanding majority of 212 seats, the largest in its history.

Other polls corroborate this trend, with More in Common predicting a Labour majority of 210 seats, and Focaldata suggesting an even higher majority of 238 seats. The Liberal Democrats are expected to secure 72 seats, up 61 from before, while the SNP faces a reduction to 16 seats from its current 48. Nigel Farage’s Reform UK is projected to secure three seats, according to YouGov.

This anticipated outcome reflects a seismic shift in British politics after 14 years of Conservative rule, potentially ending with Labour’s most decisive victory since Tony Blair’s era. The polls use MRP methodology, which combines demographic data with voting intentions to predict seat allocations accurately across constituencies.

The election results, if they mirror these projections, would redefine the political landscape and governance of the UK, highlighting significant voter dissatisfaction with the Conservative leadership and policies, particularly amidst ongoing debates over Brexit and immigration.

The New York Times

The upcoming UK General Election is poised to usher in significant change as Keir Starmer’s Labour Party appears set for a sweeping victory over the Conservatives, ending their 14-year tenure in power. However, the anticipated triumph comes with daunting challenges for Labour, who will inherit what analysts describe as a “legacy of ashes” left by the previous government.

Economic revitalization stands at the forefront of Labour’s agenda, aiming to boost revenue through targeted tax policies while avoiding austerity measures or increased borrowing. Yet, Labour faces constraints, having shelved ambitious green economy plans due to fiscal vulnerabilities. Addressing trade restrictions post-Brexit is another dilemma; while Labour seeks limited agreements, rejoining the EU’s single market or customs union remains off the table, hindering broader economic recovery.

The party also pledges to overhaul Britain’s housing and infrastructure sectors by revising planning laws to accelerate construction. However, this initiative risks a backlash from conservationists concerned about preserving green spaces.

On healthcare, Labour vows to tackle the National Health Service (NHS)’s chronic underfunding, promising 40,000 additional appointments weekly and expanding mental health services. Funding these reforms by closing tax loopholes for non-domiciled residents is part of their strategy, alongside resolving wage disputes with junior doctors, whose strikes have exacerbated NHS service delays.

The election marks a pivotal moment reflecting the tumultuous aftermath of Brexit and public discontent with Conservative governance amid economic strain and healthcare challenges. As voters head to the polls with a demand for change, Labour faces immense pressure to deliver on promises amidst a landscape fraught with complexities and expectations for swift, tangible improvements.