Retailers brace for a £3.8bn Boxing Day spending rush as shoppers chase post-Christmas deals

UK retailers are bracing for a lucrative Boxing Day as shoppers are expected to spend £3.8bn, marking a 2% rise on last year and signalling a renewed appetite for post-Christmas bargains despite ongoing financial pressure.

Boxing Day remains one of the busiest shopping days in the retail calendar, even as habits continue to shift online. While the traditional dash to the high street has softened over the years, both physical shops and digital platforms are set to benefit from consumers keen to stretch tight budgets and make the most of heavy discounts.

Online retailers are forecast to capture the bulk of the growth. Analysis by GlobalData for VoucherCodes.co.uk suggests that Christmas Day alone will generate more than £1bn in sales, with around 23 million people expected to shop online shortly after opening their presents. That figure represents an increase of half a million shoppers compared with last year.

Despite the digital dominance, the high street is far from dead. Figures from the British Retail Consortium indicate that in-store sales on Boxing Day are expected to rise by 1.5% compared with last year, comfortably ahead of shop price inflation of 0.6%. Online sales, however, are forecast to grow faster, at 3.4%.

Retail experts say Boxing Day is benefiting from a more subdued Black Friday period. Kien Tan of PwC said many retailers were left disappointed by demand in November, as shoppers held back in anticipation of deeper discounts later in the season.

“There are signs that Black Friday has peaked in the UK,” Tan said. “People are still looking for bargains on Boxing Day. It may not be a full comeback, but it remains a British institution.”

That search for value reflects a more cautious mood among consumers. Tan added that uncertainty about household finances has made shoppers more selective, with many delaying spending until prices fall further. Online shopping is being driven increasingly by busy, middle-aged consumers rather than fashion-focused younger shoppers, with stronger demand expected for homewares, furniture and gadgets.

Retailers saw signs of hesitation in the run-up to Christmas. A mild autumn and winter dampened demand for coats and knitwear, prompting fashion chains to launch early discounts. Brands including New Look, Boohoo and Sports Direct offered reductions of up to 70%, while Next, John Lewis and Topshop cut prices by as much as half.

Footfall data reflected that caution. Visitor numbers on Christmas Eve were down 4.5% compared with the same day last year, according to MRI, although there was a modest recovery later in the day. Cities such as London saw a bounceback, but this was offset by weaker performance in towns and shopping centres.

Moji Oshisanya, chief commercial officer at VoucherCodes.co.uk, said the Boxing Day uplift is being driven by both demand and rising prices. Shopper numbers over the week-long sales period are forecast to reach 105.2 million, the highest level in four years.

“Boxing Day is often when people treat themselves after Christmas,” she said. “With finances tight, shoppers are using deals to stretch their budgets. At the same time, inflation means people are spending more overall but not necessarily buying more items.”

Boxing Day now competes closely with 27 December as the busiest post-Christmas shopping day, a trend expected to be particularly strong this year as the 27th falls on a Saturday. MRI figures suggest 44% of consumers plan to visit high streets from Boxing Day onwards, while retail parks and large shopping centres are also set to draw crowds.

However, structural challenges remain. Many major retailers, including large branches of John Lewis, Marks & Spencer, Next, Aldi and B&Q, continue to close on Boxing Day. Changing family routines, multiple festive gatherings and public transport shutdowns also limit footfall.

Even so, retailers are hoping this Boxing Day spending surge will provide a much-needed boost at the end of a challenging year.